Match Info

Championship - Round 42

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Martin S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Iceland	14:00	Viaplay
Norway	16:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay


	Oxford United		Watford

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	3	Watch
	2.41	3.24	3.04	Watch
	2.45	3.35	3.07
	2.39	3.35	2.98	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.8
	2.58	3.41	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.97)	3.29 ↑ (3.25)	2.96 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
39.1%

Draw
28.8%

Watford
32.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.3%

28.6%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

28%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford United's performance.

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Watford might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Watford could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	21.4%	14.3%

Oxford United - Watford Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Watford will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oxford: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Oxford (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 6. Helik M. 3. Brown C. 15. Spencer B. 5. Konak Y. E. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 17. Mills S. 33. Donley J. 44. Peart-Harris M. 27. Lankshear W.	1. Selvik E. (G) 29. Petris J. 6. Pollock M. 3. Goglichidze S. 25. Abankwah J. 66. Irankunda N. 23. Mendy N. 10. Louza I. (C) 8. Chakvetadze G. 9. Kjerrumgaard L. 39. Kayembe E.
Substitutes
9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 32. Jeon Jin-Woo 37. Makosso C. 38. McDonnell J. 7. Placheta P. 24. ter Avest H. 11. ter Haar Romeny O. 4. Vaulks W.	34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 20. Doumbia M. 17. Ekwah P. 7. Ince T. 4. Keben K. 42. Maamma O. 50. Mullins J. 53. Nabizada A.
Coaches
Bloomfield M.	Still E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Peart-Harris M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Irankunda N. 🟨,
59', Peart-Harris M. 🟨,
60', Mendy N. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
61', Petris J. ↓, Keben K. ↑,
61', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
68', Chakvetadze G. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
71', Louza I. 🟨,
78', Peart-Harris M. ↓, ter Avest H. ↑,
87', Donley J. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
89', Goglichidze S. ↓, Ince T. ↑,
90+2', 2 - 0, Harris M. ⚽,
90+3', Konak Y. E. ↓, Vaulks W. ↑,
90+4', Lankshear W. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Oxford: De Keersmaecker B. (Shoulder Injury) Goodrham T. (Ankle Injury) Leigh G. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Watford: Grieves J. (Inactive) Kyprianou H. (Ankle Injury) Maamma O. (Muscle Injury) Ngakia J. (Hamstring Injury) Vata R. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: Currie J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Watford: Abankwah J. (Injury) Bola M. (Inactive) Irankunda N. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Oxford won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	10:20	-10	11

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Watford: 0.66%

Last Results with these Odds

Oxford United - the odds 2.97 are the expected chance of winning is 31.25%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Watford - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 40.18%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
06.04.26	Portsmouth - Oxford United	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Oxford United - Hull City	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Southampton - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Oxford United - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
11.03.26	Oxford United - Blackburn Rovers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TTLTW
- Watford FC
English League Championship
06.04.26	Watford - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Queens Park Rangers - Watford	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Watford - Leicester City	0:0 ✺
17.03.26	Watford - Wrexham	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Stoke City - Watford	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.10.25	Watford - Oxford United	2:1
15.03.25	Oxford United - Watford	1:0
08.11.24	Watford - Oxford United	1:0
English League Cup
15.09.20	Oxford United - Watford	1:2 penalties

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