Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 17 September 2024, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football Plus ROA, SuperSport Grandstand ROA, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport 4
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3, VTM 2, VTM GO
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	Max
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN
China	iQIYI
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu 1, Viaplay
France	beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, CANAL+ Sport, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2, COSMOTE Sport 4, Cosmote Sport 4K
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL3
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Italy	NOW TV, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	Wowow Live
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 1
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Mexico	HBO Max
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus
North-central-america	SportsMax 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Kanal A, Voyo
South-africa	SuperSport Grandstand
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	Varzish Sport
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, Premier Sports 1 ROI
Usa	Paramount+, Sport 24 Extra
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, SportsMax App


	Milan		Liverpool

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.8	1.95
	3.5	3.7	1.98
	3.7	3.8	1.98
	3.77	3.77	2.02
	3.83	3.76	1.97	Watch
	3.7	3.75	1.95
	3.76	3.96	2.01
	3.7	3.8	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↓ (3.82)	3.79 ↓ (3.86)	1.98 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milan
26%

Draw
25.4%

Liverpool
48.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

24.9%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

24.9%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Liverpool has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.3%	13.6%	79.1%

Milan - Liverpool Predictions

Users Predictions: Liverpool will win (87 of 106 users predict this - 82.08%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.78% – 89.38%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Maignan M. (G) 2. Calabria D. (C) 31. Pavlovic S. 23. Tomori F. 19. Hernandez T. 29. Fofana Y. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 11. Pulisic C. 14. Reijnders T. 10. Leao R. 7. Morata A.	1. Alisson (G) 66. Alexander-Arnold T. 4. van Dijk V. (C) 5. Konate I. 21. Tsimikas K. 38. Gravenberch R. 10. Mac Allister A. 11. Salah M. 8. Szoboszlai D. 18. Gakpo C. 20. Diogo Jota
Substitutes
90. Abraham T. 33. Bartesaghi D. 21. Chukwueze S. 22. Emerson Royal 46. Gabbia M. 80. Musah Y. 69. Nava L. (G) 17. Okafor N. 42. Terracciano F. 96. Torriani L. (G) 18. Zeroli K.	84. Bradley C. 14. Chiesa F. 7. Diaz L. 3. Endo W. 2. Gomez J. 56. Jaros V. (G) 17. Jones C. 62. Kelleher C. (G) 80. Morton T. 9. Nunez D. 78. Quansah J. 26. Robertson A.
Coaches
Fonseca P.	Slot A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, Pulisic C. ⚽, Morata A. (A),
22', Calabria D. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Konate I. ⚽, Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
31', Fofana Y. 🟨,
41', 1 - 2, van Dijk V. ⚽, Tsimikas K. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Maignan M. ↓, Torriani L. ↑,
53', Mac Allister A. 🟨,
60', Fonseca P. 🟨,
67', 1 - 3, Szoboszlai D. ⚽, Gakpo C. (A),
68', Diogo Jota ↓, Nunez D. ↑,
68', Gakpo C. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
69', Loftus-Cheek R. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
69', Calabria D. ↓, Emerson Royal ↑,
79', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
80', Konate I. 🟨,
84', Morata A. ↓, Okafor N. ↑,
84', Tomori F. ↓, Gabbia M. ↑,
90+2', Mac Allister A. ↓, Endo W. ↑,
90+2', Salah M. ↓, Chiesa F. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Milan is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Liverpool is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Liverpool will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Milan: Bennacer I. (Calf Injury) Florenzi A. (Knee Injury) Sportiello M. (Hand Injury) Thiaw M. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Liverpool: Elliott H. (Broken ankle)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Milan won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Milan won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
14.09.24	Milan - Venezia	4:0 ✺
31.08.24	Lazio - Milan	2:2 ✺
24.08.24	Parma - Milan	2:1 ✺
17.08.24	Milan - Torino	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
13.08.24	Milan - Monza	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTLTW
- Liverpool FC
English Premier League
14.09.24	Liverpool - Nottingham Forest	0:1 ✺
01.09.24	Manchester United - Liverpool	0:3 ✺
25.08.24	Liverpool - Brentford	2:0 ✺
17.08.24	Ipswich Town - Liverpool	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
11.08.24	Liverpool - Las Palmas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.12.22	Liverpool - Milan	4:1
UEFA Champions League
07.12.21	Milan - Liverpool	1:2
15.09.21	Liverpool - Milan	3:2
International Champions Cup
30.07.16	Liverpool - Milan	2:0
02.08.14	Milan - Liverpool	0:2

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