Match Info

Serie A - Round 11

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport 4K, Sky Sport Calcio, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Kuwait	Shasha
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV4
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN, DAZN UK, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Parma		Milan

	1	X	2
	6.5	4	1.5	Watch
	6.9	4.15	1.52	Watch
	7.1	4.2	1.55
	5.37	3.81	1.66	Watch
	7.1	4.15	1.54
	5.8	3.94	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.46 ↑ (5.26)	4.04 ↑ (3.77)	1.57 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
14.9%

Draw
23.8%

Milan
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18%

25.1%

56.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6%

24.5%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.6%	23.2%	73.2%

Parma - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Parma will win (votes: 2 - 3.6%). Milan will win (votes: 41 - 73.2%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 23.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 61.6% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Milan (votes: 16 - 69.6%). Tie (votes: 7 - 30.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - draw (1.14) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH +0.25 - Parma (3.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 1 - 4.2%). Milan (votes: 16 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 7 - 29.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Suzuki Z. (G) 15. Del Prato E. (C) 3. Ndiaye A. 5. Valenti L. 18. Lovik M. 10. Bernabe A. 16. Keita M. 22. Sorensen O. 27. Britschgi S. 32. Cutrone P. 9. Pellegrino M.	16. Maignan M. (C) 5. De Winter K. 46. Gabbia M. 31. Pavlovic S. 56. Saelemaekers A. 19. Fofana Y. 14. Modric L. 4. Ricci S. 2. Estupinan P. 18. Nkunku C. 10. Leao R.
Substitutes
19. Begic T. 7. Benedyczak A. 75. Cardinali A. 40. Corvi E. (G) 25. Cremaschi B. 30. Djuric M. 23. Hernani 79. Konate A. 65. Plicco E. 66. Rinaldi F. (G) 77. Tigani E. 63. Trabucchi N. 37. Troilo M. 14. Valeri E.	24. Athekame Z. 33. Bartesaghi D. 30. Jashari A. 8. Loftus-Cheek R. 27. Odogu D. 11. Pulisic C. 1. Terracciano P. (G) 23. Tomori F. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
Cuesta C.	Allegri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Saelemaekers A. ⚽, Nkunku C. (A),
25', 0 - 2, Leao R. (Pen),
45+1', 1 - 2, Bernabe A. ⚽, Britschgi S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ndiaye A. ↓, Troilo M. ↑,
60', Nkunku C. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
62', 2 - 2, Del Prato E. ⚽, Britschgi S. (A),
69', Lovik M. ↓, Valeri E. ↑,
70', Modric L. 🟨,
71', Estupinan P. ↓, Bartesaghi D. ↑,
71', Ricci S. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
80', Bernabe A. ↓, Hernani ↑,
86', Sorensen O. 🟨,
87', De Winter K. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
90+2', Cutrone P. ↓, Cremaschi B. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma won 1.

Recent form of Parma has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Milan is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Parma may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Milan is the team to beat.

There will not play in Parma: Almqvist P. (Thigh Injury) Circati A. (Injury) Estevez N. (Injury) Frigan M. (Knee Injury) Ondrejka J. (Broken ankle) Ordonez C. (Red Card) Oristanio G. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Gimenez S. (Ankle Injury) Rabiot A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Parma won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:33. (average 1.6:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Parma won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Parma - Bologna	1:3 ✺
29.10.25	Roma - Parma	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Parma - Como	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Genoa - Parma	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Parma - Lecce	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLTTL
- AC Milan
Italian Serie A
02.11.25	Milan - Roma	1:0 ✺
28.10.25	Atalanta - Milan	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Milan - Pisa	2:2 ✺
19.10.25	Milan - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Juventus - Milan	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
26.01.25	Milan - Parma	3:2
24.08.24	Parma - Milan	2:1
10.04.21	Parma - Milan	1:3
13.12.20	Milan - Parma	2:2
15.07.20	Milan - Parma	3:1
01.12.19	Parma - Milan	0:1
20.04.19	Parma - Milan	1:1

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