Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 18

Date: 12 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Linington J. (Eng)


	Milton Keynes Dons		Derby County

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.25
	3.3	3.2	2.2
	3.5	3.35	2.15
	3.25	3.2	2.17
	3.44	3.46	2.2
	3.4	3.3	2.1
	3.52	3.52	2.14	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↓ (3.5)	3.32 ↓ (3.37)	2.17 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
28%

Draw
28.5%

Derby County
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

27.8%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

27.3%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	12.5%	68.7%

Milton Keynes Dons - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Derby will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 7).

MK Dons has the most likely position - 17 (8.06%), has project points - 56, has currently - 14, has a small chance of relegated (13%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Derby has the most likely position - 5 (12.26%), has project points - 78, has currently - 25, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (46%), has a chance of promoted (25%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

This event has small quality 28, small importance 29, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

MK Dons is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Derby is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

MK Dons could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Derby will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches MK Dons won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams MK Dons won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Cup
08.11.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Morecambe	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Taunton Town	6:0 ✺
English League One
29.10.22	Cheltenham Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:0 ✺
25.10.22	Charlton Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2 ✺
22.10.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Wycombe Wanderers	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWTWL
- Derby County
English League Cup
09.11.22	Liverpool - Derby County	1:0 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
06.11.22	Torquay United - Derby County	2:2 ✺
English League One
01.11.22	Morecambe - Derby County	1:1 ✺
29.10.22	Derby County - Bristol Rovers	4:2 ✺
25.10.22	Derby County - Exeter City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
13.02.16	Derby County - Milton Keynes Dons	0:1
26.09.15	Milton Keynes Dons - Derby County	1:3

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