Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 15

Date: 24 October 2023, Tuesday


	Derby County		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	5.75
	1.57	4.1	5.25
	1.6	4	5.5	Watch
	1.59	4.2	5.74
	1.6	4.2	5.74
	1.55	4	5.8
	1.59	4.05	5.4	Watch
	1.6	4	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.66)	4.07 ↑ (3.98)	5.57 ↑ (4.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
59.8%

Draw
23.3%

Exeter City
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

23.6%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

22.6%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Derby County - Exeter City Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 3. Forsyth C. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 8. Bird M. 2. Wilson K. 17. Sibley L. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 10. Waghorn M.	1. Sinisalo V. (G) 4. Aimson W. (C) 24. Fitzwater J. 5. Hartridge A. 31. Harper V. 6. Carroll T. 8. Trevitt R. 3. Jules Z. 29. Aitchison J. 7. Mitchell D. 10. Muskwe A.
Substitutes
7. Barkhuizen T. 5. Bradley S. 9. Collins J. 22. Fornah T. 12. Smith K. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Washington C.	39. Diabate C. 16. Kite H. 30. MacDonald S. (G) 11. Scott J. 26. Sweeney P. 17. Watts C. 13. Wildschut Y.
Coaches
Warne P.	Caldwell G.

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 11 and 16).

Recent matches Derby is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Exeter has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Derby have a series of guest games.

Recently Exeter have a series of home games.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Derby won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
21.10.23	Shrewsbury Town - Derby County	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Notts County - Derby County	1:2 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Cheltenham Town - Derby County	1:1 ✺
03.10.23	Blackpool - Derby County	1:3 ✺
30.09.23	Derby County - Cambridge United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWTWT
- Exeter City
English League One
21.10.23	Exeter City - Wigan Athletic	0:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Exeter City - Arsenal U21	0:5 ✺
English League One
07.10.23	Exeter City - Barnsley	0:1 ✺
03.10.23	Charlton Athletic - Exeter City	4:1 ✺
30.09.23	Exeter City - Northampton Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
18.04.23	Exeter City - Derby County	1:2
25.10.22	Derby County - Exeter City	0:0

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