Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/128-FINALS

Date: 6 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Plainmoor (Torquay)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Sweden	Viaplay


	Torquay United		Derby County

	1	X	2
	11	6	1.25	Watch
	9.25	6	1.23
	11	6.5	1.22
	9.6	6	1.25
	9.91	6.21	1.26
	11	5.25	1.22	Watch
	10.25	6.05	1.22	Watch
	10	6.4	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.25 ↑ (7.85)	6.05 ↑ (4.68)	1.24 ↓ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torquay United
9.1%

Draw
15.4%

Derby County
75.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.9%

20%

68.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.7%

19.6%

69.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torquay United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Derby County's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torquay United than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Derby County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	0%	30.8%

Torquay United - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Torquay will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Derby will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Torquay: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Replayed if draw.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Derby is absolute favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Torquay United
English National League
01.11.22	Torquay United - Aldershot Town	6:1 ✺
29.10.22	Notts County - Torquay United	4:0 ✺
25.10.22	Eastleigh - Torquay United	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Torquay United - Altrincham	4:4 ✺
English FA Cup
18.10.22	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Torquay United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLTW
- Derby County
English League One
01.11.22	Morecambe - Derby County	1:1 ✺
29.10.22	Derby County - Bristol Rovers	4:2 ✺
25.10.22	Derby County - Exeter City	0:0 ✺
21.10.22	Ipswich Town - Derby County	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Derby County - Manchester City U21	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TWTLL

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