Match Info

League Two - Round 28

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Dale A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Milton Keynes Dons		Shrewsbury Town

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.2	7.5	Watch
	1.58	3.9	5.5
	1.43	4.45	6.9	Watch
	1.44	4.43	7.57
	1.46	4.12	6.95	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.43	4.22	7.54	Watch
	1.42	4.5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.6)	4.23 ↑ (3.79)	6.93 ↑ (5.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
64.4%

Draw
22.1%

Shrewsbury Town
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

24.5%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

17.7%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milton Keynes Dons's performance.

Shrewsbury Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-22.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milton Keynes Dons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shrewsbury Town than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shrewsbury Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Milton Keynes Dons - Shrewsbury Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Shrewsbury will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - MK Dons (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - MK Dons (1.71) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 15. Offord L. 32. Sanders J. 25. Nelson C. 6. Kelly L. 2. Jones G. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 26. Wiles B. 16. Nemane A. 10. Collins A. 13. Paterson C.	12. Brook W. (G) 16. Freeman N. 2. Hoole L. 5. Boyle W. 6. Clucas S. 20. Kabia I. 14. Perry T. 25. Ruffels J. 19. Morgan I. 27. Marquis J. (C) 21. Samuel-Ogunsuyi T.
Substitutes
7. Crowley D. 21. Ekpiteta M. 9. Hogan S. 24. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 28. Matete J. 22. Mellish J. 27. Trueman C. (G)	4. Anderson T. 1. Cox M. (G) 38. England I. 23. Lee I. 9. Lloyd G. 22. Ojinnaka T. 10. Sang T.
Coaches
Warne P.	Appleton M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
7', Morgan I. 🟨,
8', 1 - 0, Paterson C. ⚽, Wiles B. (A),
10', Hoole L. 🟨,
11', 2 - 0, Paterson C. (Penalty Awarded),
31', Nemane A. 🟨,
34', 3 - 0, Paterson C. ⚽, Wiles B. (A),
40', Perry T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Nemane A. ↓, Mellish J. ↑,
69', Gilbey A. ↓, Matete J. ↑,
69', Jones G. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
72', Samuel-Ogunsuyi T. ↓, Ojinnaka T. ↑,
72', Morgan I. ↓, Sang T. ↑,
72', Perry T. ↓, Lloyd G. ↑,
77', Paterson C. ↓, Hogan S. ↑,
81', 4 - 0, Offord L. ⚽,
82', Kelly L. ↓, Crowley D. ↑,
83', 4 - 1, Sang T. ⚽,
88', 5 - 1, Crowley D. ⚽,
90+3', Clucas S. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 2.

In recent matches, MK Dons has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Shrewsbury is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

MK Dons may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, MK Dons is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in MK Dons: Collar W. (Inactive) Mendez-Laing N. (Inactive) Thompson N. (Inactive) Tomlinson J. (Inactive) Wilson K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Shrewsbury: Ihionvien B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in MK Dons: Hepburn-Murphy R. (Inactive) Maguire L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Shrewsbury: Sang T. (Inactive) Scully A. (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.6:1.3).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Shrewsbury: 0.72%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	9:15	-6	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
17.01.26	Accrington Stanley - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
09.01.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Oxford United	1:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
04.01.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Chesterfield	2:2 ✺
01.01.26	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0 ✺
29.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Notts County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLTLT
- Shrewsbury Town
English League Two
17.01.26	Shrewsbury Town - Harrogate Town	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Shrewsbury Town	6:1 ✺
English League Two
01.01.26	Shrewsbury Town - Bristol Rovers	0:3 ✺
29.12.25	Grimsby Town - Shrewsbury Town	1:0 ✺
26.12.25	Cheltenham Town - Shrewsbury Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.09.25	Shrewsbury Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2
English League One
24.01.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Shrewsbury Town	0:1
08.10.22	Shrewsbury Town - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1
02.04.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Shrewsbury Town	2:0
16.10.21	Shrewsbury Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
23.02.21	Shrewsbury Town - Milton Keynes Dons	4:2
24.11.20	Milton Keynes Dons - Shrewsbury Town	2:2

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