Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Howard P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Malta	TSN Malta 1
Peru	Disney+
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Milton Keynes Dons		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.25
	2.75	3.3	2.35
	3.05	3.45	2.32
	2.92	3.53	2.34	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.25
	2.91	3.34	2.36	Watch
	2.85	3.5	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.7)	3.4 ↓ (3.45)	2.31 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
32.2%

Draw
27.5%

Oxford United
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

27%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

25.9%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45%	25%	30%

Milton Keynes Dons - Oxford United Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. MK Dons will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Oxford will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 17.8% – 64.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Oxford (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 25%). Oxford (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 2. Jones G. 32. Sanders J. 15. Offord L. (C) 26. Wiles B. 16. Nemane A. 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 7. Crowley D. 24. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 9. Hogan S. 10. Collins A.	21. Ingram M. (G) 2. Long S. 6. Helik M. 29. Davies B. 26. Currie J. 4. Vaulks W. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 17. Mills S. 33. Donley J. 23. Dembele S. 27. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
54. Boateng H. 46. Burke J. 6. Kelly L. 17. Leko J. 28. Matete J. 13. Paterson C. 44. Singh-Hurditt D. 34. Tripp C. 27. Trueman C. (G)	1. Cumming J. (G) 14. De Keersmaecker B. 9. Harris M. 50. Krastev F. 22. Leigh G. 25. Peart-Harris M. 10. Phillips M. 15. Spencer B. 11. ter Haar Romeny O.
Coaches
Warne P.	Rowett G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Donley J. ↓, Peart-Harris M. ↑,
34', 1 - 0, Collins A. ⚽, Lemonheigh-Evans C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 1 - 1, Lankshear W. ⚽,
60', Nemane A. ↓, Tripp C. ↑,
65', Brannagan C. ↓, Krastev F. ↑,
66', Vaulks W. ↓, De Keersmaecker B. ↑,
66', Dembele S. ↓, ter Haar Romeny O. ↑,
72', Thompson-Sommers K. ↓, Kelly L. ↑,
72', Wiles B. ↓, Matete J. ↑,
72', Hogan S. ↓, Paterson C. ↑,
79', Crowley D. ↓, Leko J. ↑,
90+2', Lankshear W. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
96', Paterson C. 🟨,
98', Jones G. ↓, Burke J. ↑,
98', Mills S. ↓, Phillips M. ↑,
Penalties (3 - 4)
1, Sanders J. (Penalty Awarded),
1, ter Haar Romeny O. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Leko J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Harris M. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Matete J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Peart-Harris M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Paterson C. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Phillips M. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Lemonheigh-Evans C. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 2.

MK Dons has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Oxford is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Oxford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:17. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 0.9:0.7).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Oxford Utd: 0.32%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
04.01.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Chesterfield	2:2 ✺
01.01.26	Colchester United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0 ✺
29.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Notts County	1:1 ✺
26.12.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Harrogate Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLTWW
- Oxford United
English League Championship
01.01.26	Ipswich Town - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
29.12.25	Oxford United - Swansea City	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Oxford United - Southampton	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Charlton Athletic - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Oxford United - Preston North End	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
19.09.23	Oxford United - Milton Keynes Dons	0:1
English League One
11.02.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Oxford United	1:1
17.09.22	Oxford United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2
19.04.22	Oxford United - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
11.12.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Oxford United	1:2
27.02.21	Milton Keynes Dons - Oxford United	1:1
20.10.20	Oxford United - Milton Keynes Dons	3:2

Upcoming Matches