Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN 7
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Caze TV, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 7
Ecuador	ESPN 2, ESPN 7
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Greece	ERT Sports 2
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	LaLiga+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 7, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Mirassol		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.12	2.98	3.7	Watch
	2.25	3	3.89
	2.19	2.86	3.89	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.6	Watch
	2.24	3.06	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.08)	2.97 ↓ (3.1)	3.68 ↓ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
42.8%

Draw
31.6%

Lanús
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

30.3%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

31.7%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Mirassol - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Lanús will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Lanús (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 1 - 50%). Lanús (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor (C) 2. Lucas Oliveira 6. Reinaldo 25. Neto Moura 21. Jose Aldo 11. Negueba 33. Eduardo 95. Edson Carioca 99. Andre Luis	26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 17. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 8. Watson F. N. 16. Sepulveda M. 23. Carrera R.
Substitutes
77. Alesson 23. Alex Muralha (G) 10. Chico Kim 8. Denilson 17. Everton Galdino 18. Gabriel Pires 26. Lucas Mugni 9. Nathan Fogaca 97. Rodrigues 7. Shaylon 12. Victor Luis 3. Willian Machado	38. Acosta B. 77. Besozzi L. 9. Bou W. 20. Cabrera B. 35. De Jesus R. 3. Morgantini N. 5. Pena Biafore F. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 2. Romero L. 27. Sanchez F. 19. Valois Y.
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Jose Aldo 🟨,
20', Lucas Oliveira 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Sepulveda M. 🟨,
60', 1 - 0, Joao Victor ⚽, Reinaldo (A),
62', Jose Aldo ↓, Gabriel Pires ↑,
69', Edson Carioca ↓, Alesson ↑,
69', Watson F. N. ↓, Valois Y. ↑,
69', Sepulveda M. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
69', Eduardo ↓, Shaylon ↑,
71', Alesson 🟨,
77', Andre Luis ↓, Nathan Fogaca ↑,
77', Salvio E. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
77', Cardozo A. ↓, Pena Biafore F. ↑,
77', Neto Moura ↓, Denilson ↑,
83', Canale Dominguez J. ↓, De Jesus R. ↑,
89', Guidara T. 🟥,

Preview

Mirassol has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lanús is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mirassol may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mirassol could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Lanús: Aquino D. (Inactive) Bou W. (Inactive) Loaiza R. (Knee Injury) Marcelino Moreno (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Igor Carius (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Lanús: Canale Dominguez J. (Inactive)

We predict that Lanús will win today's game, with odds of 3.73.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Mirassol: 1.93%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino	0:1 ✺
01.04.26	Botafogo RJ - Mirassol	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
18.03.26	Mirassol - Coritiba	0:1 ✺
15.03.26	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.04.26	Lanús - Platense	0:0 ✺
26.03.26	Argentinos Juniors - Lanús	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	0:1 ✺
17.03.26	Lanús - Newells Old Boys	5:0 ✺
13.03.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Lanús	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TLWWW

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