Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 16

Date: 8 December 2022, Thursday

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Referee: Gariglio M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Parma		Benevento

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.5	4	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.2
	1.85	3.4	4.2
	1.87	3.35	4.1
	1.89	3.51	4.61
	1.88	3.3	4.2
	1.86	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.84	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.9)	3.43 ↑ (3.4)	4.21 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
50.6%

Draw
27.2%

Benevento
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

27.3%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

27%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Benevento has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Parma than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.8%	10.8%	5.4%

Parma - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: Parma will win (62 of 74 users predict this - 83.78%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.38% – 92.18%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out)).

Parma has the most likely position - 2 (14.94%), has project points - 61, has currently - 23, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (53%), has a chance of promoted (39%), has a small chance of win league (12%).

Benevento has the most likely position - 16 (7.74%), has project points - 47, has currently - 15, has a chance of relegated (24%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (20%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 39, importance 45, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Parma is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Parma won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Parma won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Italian Serie B
03.12.22	Cagliari - Parma	1:1 ✺
26.11.22	Parma - Modena	1:2 ✺
12.11.22	Parma - Cittadella	3:1 ✺
05.11.22	Palermo - Parma	1:0 ✺
29.10.22	Parma - Como	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLWLW
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
04.12.22	Benevento - Palermo	0:1 ✺
27.11.22	Reggina - Benevento	2:2 ✺
12.11.22	SPAL - Benevento	1:2 ✺
05.11.22	Benevento - Bari	1:1 ✺
29.10.22	Benevento - Pisa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
05.02.22	Benevento - Parma	0:0
29.08.21	Parma - Benevento	1:0
Italian Serie A
03.04.21	Benevento - Parma	2:2
06.12.20	Parma - Benevento	0:0

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