Match Info

Serie B - Round 25

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Braglia (Modena)

Referee: Perri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Modena		Carrarese

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.7	5.75	Watch
	1.58	3.85	5.5	Watch
	1.62	3.85	6.79
	1.56	3.81	6.23	Watch
	1.57	3.8	5
	1.6	3.59	6.68	Watch
	1.57	3.6	6.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.52)	3.74 ↓ (3.97)	6.09 ↑ (5.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Modena
59.5%

Draw
25.1%

Carrarese
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

23.3%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

24.4%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Carrarese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Modena than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	23.5%	5.9%

Modena - Carrarese Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Modena will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Carrarese will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Modena: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Carrarese (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Carrarese (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 10. Ambrosino G. 25. Dellavalle A. 2. Beyuku G. 8. Santoro S. 16. Gerli F. (C) 20. Nieling B. 7. Zampano F. 99. De Luca M. 17. Massolin Y.	1. Bleve M. (G) 26. Ruggeri F. 6. Oliana F. 4. Illanes J. 18. Schiavi N. (C) 72. Zanon S. 8. Melegoni F. 17. Zuelli E. 7. Belloni N. 21. Rubino T. 9. Abiuso F.
Substitutes
28. Adorni D. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 92. Defrel G. 9. Gliozzi E. 90. Imputato A. 13. Laidani A. (G) 11. Mendes P. 19. Nador S. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 71. Wiafe S. 98. Zanimacchia L.	37. Calabrese N. 28. Di Stefano F. 32. Finotto M. 99. Fiorillo V. (G) 78. Guercio T. 70. Hasa L. 3. Imperiale M. 25. Lordkipanidze D. 77. Parlanti G. 73. Rouhi J. 44. Sekulov N. 92. Torregrossa E.
Coaches
Sottil A.	Calabro A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Beyuku G. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Massolin Y. ⚽, De Luca M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Beyuku G. ↓, Zanimacchia L. ↑,
53', Schiavi N. 🟨,
56', Rubino T. ↓, Sekulov N. ↑,
56', Belloni N. ↓, Rouhi J. ↑,
56', Schiavi N. ↓, Hasa L. ↑,
61', Ruggeri F. 🟨,
61', Nieling B. 🟨,
62', Zanimacchia L. 🟨,
70', Ambrosino G. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
70', Melegoni F. ↓, Di Stefano F. ↑,
70', De Luca M. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
73', Dellavalle A. 🟨,
79', Dellavalle A. ↓, Nador S. ↑,
80', Ruggeri F. ↓, Torregrossa E. ↑,
88', Illanes J. 🟨,
89', Zampano F. ↓, Cotali M. ↑,
90+1', Hasa L. 🟨,
90+1', 2 - 0, Defrel G. ⚽, Cotali M. (A),
90+1', Zuelli E. 🟨,
90+3', Defrel G. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Modena is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Modena: Sersanti A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Carrarese: Bouah D. (Inactive) Salamon B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Carrarese: Rouhi J. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Modena won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Modena won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Modena: 9.24% Carrarese: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	2:6	-4	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
10.02.26	Venezia - Modena	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	Modena - Sampdoria	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Empoli - Modena	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	Modena - Palermo	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Pescara - Modena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLTTW
- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
10.02.26	Padova - Carrarese	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Carrarese - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Venezia - Carrarese	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	Carrarese - Empoli	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Avellino - Carrarese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
01.10.25	Carrarese - Modena	0:0
04.05.25	Carrarese - Modena	2:1
09.11.24	Modena - Carrarese	2:0
Italian Serie C Group B
12.03.22	Carrarese - Modena	2:3
31.10.21	Modena - Carrarese	2:0

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