Match Info

Serie B - Round 22

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Mucera G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Empoli		Modena

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.25	2.05	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.15
	3.3	3.05	2.18	Watch
	3.81	3.14	2.22
	3.49	3.23	2.14	Watch
	3.5	3	2.1
	3.46	3.26	2.19	Watch
	3.6	3	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↓ (3.55)	3.15 ↓ (3.18)	2.15 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
26.8%

Draw
29.7%

Modena
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.1%

29.2%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

27.2%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Modena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Empoli - Modena Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Modena will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Empoli: 2.5% – 64.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Modena (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Fulignati A. (G) 20. Lovato M. (C) 34. Guarino G. 5. Obaretin N. 7. Elia S. 18. Ghion A. 25. Ignacchiti L. 6. Degli Innocenti D. 10. Ilie R. 15. Ceesay J. 19. Nasti M.	1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 19. Nador S. 20. Nieling B. 2. Beyuku G. 17. Massolin Y. 16. Gerli F. (C) 8. Santoro S. 7. Zampano F. 99. De Luca M. 11. Mendes P.
Substitutes
23. Candela A. 2. Curto M. 24. Ebuehi T. 17. Fila D. 32. Haas N. 27. Moruzzi B. 1. Perisan S. (G) 77. Popov B. 4. Romagnoli S. 70. Saporiti E. 11. Shpendi S. 14. Yepes G.	28. Adorni D. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 92. Defrel G. 25. Dellavalle A. 9. Gliozzi E. 13. Laidani A. (G) 6. Magnino L. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 18. Pyyhtia N. 98. Zanimacchia L.
Coaches
Dionisi A.	Sottil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', De Luca M. 🟨,
45', Nador S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ignacchiti L. ↓, Shpendi S. ↑,
56', Shpendi S. 🟨,
67', De Luca M. ↓, Gliozzi E. ↑,
68', Massolin Y. ↓, Pyyhtia N. ↑,
68', Beyuku G. ↓, Zanimacchia L. ↑,
70', Ceesay J. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
70', Ilie R. ↓, Yepes G. ↑,
70', Nasti M. ↓, Fila D. ↑,
73', Mendes P. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
79', Elia S. ↓, Moruzzi B. ↑,
81', Nador S. 🟨,
83', Defrel G. ↓, Adorni D. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 3.

Recent performances by Empoli have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Modena has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Empoli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Modena could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Empoli: Indragoli G. (Inactive) Konate I. (Inactive) Pellegri P. (Injury) Romagnoli S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Modena: Sersanti A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Modena: Santoro S. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Empoli won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 2.3:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
13	Empoli	6	2	0	4	6:10	-4	6

Last Results with these Odds

Modena - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.71%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
23.01.26	Carrarese - Empoli	3:0 ✺
17.01.26	Empoli - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Cesena - Empoli	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Empoli - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Mantova - Empoli	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LLWTW
- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
24.01.26	Modena - Palermo	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Pescara - Modena	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Padova - Modena	2:0 ✺
26.12.25	Modena - Monza	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Modena - Venezia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
24.10.25	Modena - Empoli	2:1
15.03.14	Modena - Empoli	0:0
05.10.13	Empoli - Modena	2:1
19.03.13	Modena - Empoli	2:3
27.10.12	Empoli - Modena	4:2
21.04.12	Empoli - Modena	1:3

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