Match Info

Serie B - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Euganeo (Padova)

Referee: Caputi M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Padova		Modena

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.1	1.81	Watch
	3.9	3.2	1.98
	4.15	3.15	1.92	Watch
	4.25	3.34	1.89	Watch
	4	3.1	1.91
	4.84	3.16	1.89	Watch
	4.5	3.14	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↑ (4.27)	3.17 ↑ (2.97)	1.9 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Padova
21.5%

Draw
29.4%

Modena
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

31.4%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

27.6%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Modena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	40%	33.3%

Padova - Modena Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Modena will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Modena will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Sorrentino A. (G) 4. Belli F. 32. Sgarbi F. 5. Perrotta M. 18. Ghiglione P. 8. Fusi P. 44. Harder J. 7. Varas K. 17. Capelli A. 20. Bortolussi M. 10. Papu Gomez (C)	1. Chichizola L. (G) 77. Tonoli D. 28. Adorni D. 20. Nieling B. 7. Zampano F. 8. Santoro S. 16. Gerli F. (C) 17. Massolin Y. 98. Zanimacchia L. 23. Di Mariano F. 9. Gliozzi E.
Substitutes
33. Baselli D. 92. Buonaiuto C. 6. Crisetig L. 23. Di Maggio L. 72. Faedo C. 14. Fortin M. (G) 15. Lasagna K. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 58. Pastina C. 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 55. Villa L.	78. Bagheria F. (G) 2. Beyuku G. 33. Cauz C. 29. Cotali M. 25. Dellavalle A. 99. De Luca M. 6. Magnino L. 11. Mendes P. 19. Nador S. 22. Pezzolato M. (G) 18. Pyyhtia N.
Coaches
Andreoletti M.	Sottil A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Bortolussi M. ⚽, Capelli A. (A),
26', Perrotta M. 🟨,
34', Adorni D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Belli F. 🟨,
62', Di Mariano F. ↓, De Luca M. ↑,
65', Adorni D. ↓, Dellavalle A. ↑,
65', Zanimacchia L. ↓, Beyuku G. ↑,
68', Belli F. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
78', Santoro S. ↓, Pyyhtia N. ↑,
78', Bortolussi M. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
78', Gliozzi E. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
78', Papu Gomez ↓, Seghetti A. ↑,
79', Harder J. ↓, Crisetig L. ↑,
85', Ghiglione P. 🟨,
88', Ghiglione P. ↓, Faedo C. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 0, Lasagna K. ⚽, Varas K. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 1.

In recent matches, Padova has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Modena is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Modena is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Injury) Favale G. (Inactive) Lasagna K. (Muscle Injury) Pastina C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Modena: Caso G. (Inactive) Defrel G. (Inactive) Ponsi F. (Inactive)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Padova won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 7:13. (average 0.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Modena	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Modena - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.69%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Padova - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Reggiana - Padova	1:2 ✺
08.12.25	Padova - Cesena	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Pescara - Padova	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTWTW
- FC Modena
Italian Serie B
26.12.25	Modena - Monza	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Modena - Venezia	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Spezia - Modena	0:2 ✺
08.12.25	Modena - Catanzaro	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Cesena - Modena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
18.04.21	Modena - Padova	3:0
23.12.20	Padova - Modena	0:1
19.01.20	Padova - Modena	0:1
09.09.19	Modena - Padova	0:1
29.10.17	Modena - Padova	Padova awarded
19.03.17	Modena - Padova	0:1
29.10.16	Padova - Modena	1:0

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