Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Renzo Barbera (Palermo)

Referee: Massimi L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Slovenia	Sport TV3
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Palermo		Spezia

	1	X	2
	1.61	3.8	5.25	Watch
	1.65	3.65	4.75
	1.65	3.79	5.12	Watch
	1.67	3.5	4.8
	1.66	3.75	5.03	Watch
	1.66	3.75	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.73)	3.71 ↑ (3.63)	4.99 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palermo
56.3%

Draw
25.1%

Spezia
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

25.7%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

24.7%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Palermo - Spezia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Palermo will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Palermo will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
66. Joronen J. (G) 19. Bereszynski B. 13. Bani M. (C) 72. Veroli D. 27. Pierozzi N. 8. Segre J. 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 5. Palumbo A. 11. Gyasi E. 20. Pohjanpalo J.	22. Radunovic B. (G) 2. Wisniewski P. 37. Mateju A. 11. Beruatto P. 17. Sernicola L. 29. Cassata F. (C) 5. Valoti M. 34. Comotto C. 70. Adamo E. 27. Soleri E. 20. Di Serio G.
Substitutes
28. Blin A. 32. Ceccaroni P. 31. Corona G. 77. Di Bartolo F. (G) 17. Giovane S. 6. Gomes C. 1. Gomis A. (G) 21. Le Douaron J. 29. Peda P. 14. Vasic A.	9. Artistico G. 31. Aurelio G. 23. Candela A. 6. Fellipe Jack 80. Kouda R. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 8. Nagy A. 60. Romano A. 7. Verde D. 32. Vignali L. 99. Vlahovic V.
Coaches
Inzaghi F.	Donadoni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Segre J. ⚽, Pohjanpalo J. (A),
17', Mateju A. 🟨,
40', Gyasi E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gyasi E. ↓, Le Douaron J. ↑,
46', Veroli D. ↓, Ceccaroni P. ↑,
49', Sernicola L. 🟨,
54', Bereszynski B. 🟨,
58', Bereszynski B. ↓, Peda P. ↑,
59', Soleri E. 🟨,
61', Comotto C. ↓, Romano A. ↑,
62', Di Serio G. ↓, Artistico G. ↑,
62', Valoti M. ↓, Verde D. ↑,
68', Sernicola L. ↓, Aurelio G. ↑,
77', Palumbo A. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
84', Adamo E. ↓, Candela A. ↑,
85', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Corona G. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 2.

Palermo is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Spezia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Palermo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Palermo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F. (Injury) Sarr M. (Ankle Injury) Zurkowski S. (Knee Injury)

We predict that Palermo will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Palermo won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Palermo won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	6	5	1	0	14:7	7	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
11.01.26	Mantova - Palermo	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Palermo - Padova	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Avellino - Palermo	2:2 ✺
12.12.25	Palermo - Sampdoria	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Empoli - Palermo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWTWW
- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
10.01.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	Spezia - Pescara	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Frosinone - Spezia	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Spezia - Modena	0:2 ✺
08.12.25	Virtus Entella - Spezia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
04.10.25	Spezia - Palermo	1:2
09.02.25	Spezia - Palermo	2:2
01.12.24	Palermo - Spezia	2:0
01.05.24	Spezia - Palermo	1:0
23.10.23	Palermo - Spezia	2:2
01.05.19	Palermo - Spezia	2:2
23.12.18	Spezia - Palermo	1:1

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