Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Olympique Marseille		Monaco

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.7	3.55
	1.98	3.94	3.71
	1.97	3.86	3.49	Watch
	1.91	3.6	3.6
	1.97	3.94	3.94	Watch
	2	3.8	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.82)	3.79 ↓ (4.03)	3.64 ↓ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
48.7%

Draw
25.2%

Monaco
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

23.5%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

23.4%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.5%	11.1%	7.4%

Olympique Marseille - Monaco Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Marseille (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Monaco (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Marseille (1.31) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Marseille (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (44 of 54 users predict this - 81.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.12% – 91.84%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (18 of 24 users predict this - 75%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 22 - 71%). Monaco (votes: 6 - 19.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 62. Murillo M. 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 22. Weah T. 23. Hojbjerg P. (C) 18. Vermeeren A. 19. Kondogbia G. 33. Emerson 10. Greenwood M. 97. Aubameyang P.	1. Hradecky L. (G) 2. Vanderson 5. Kehrer T. 22. Salisu M. 12. Caio Henrique 15. Camara L. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 11. Akliouche M. 18. Minamino T. 10. Golovin A. 9. Balogun F.
Substitutes
50. Bakola D. 5. Balerdi L. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 8. Gomes A. 26. Nadir B. 17. O'Riley M. 14. Paixao I. 34. Vaz R.	14. Biereth M. 28. Coulibaly M. 3. Dier E. 17. Idumbo S. 19. Ilenikhena G. 16. Kohn P. (G) 13. Mawissa C. 20. Ouattara K. 4. Teze J.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Pocognoli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Kondogbia G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kondogbia G. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
58', Pavard B. ↓, Paixao I. ↑,
58', Murillo M. ↓, Balerdi L. ↑,
64', Vanderson 🟨,
81', Vermeeren A. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Greenwood M. ⚽, Hojbjerg P. (A),
83', Greenwood M. 🟨,
86', Aubameyang P. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
86', Camara L. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
86', Minamino T. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1.

Marseille is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Monaco has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Marseille might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Marseille: Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Monaco: Fati A. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Murillo M. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Monaco: Pogba P. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:45. (average 1.6:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.4:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Saint-Gilloise - Olympique Marseille	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
05.12.25	Lille - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
21.11.25	Nice - Olympique Marseille	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLTWW
- AS Monaco
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Monaco - Galatasaray	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
05.12.25	Brest - Monaco	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
26.11.25	Paphos - Monaco	2:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
22.11.25	Rennes - Monaco	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
12.04.25	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	3:0
01.12.24	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	2:1
27.01.24	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	2:2
30.09.23	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	3:2
28.01.23	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	1:1
13.11.22	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:3
06.03.22	Olympique Marseille - Monaco	0:1

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