Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Monaco		Manchester City

	1	X	2
	7	5.25	1.38
	7.3	5.65	1.38
	8.53	5.9	1.34
	21.58	7.19	1.14	Watch
	7.07	5.48	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.3 ↑ (4.6)	5.89 ↑ (4.18)	1.34 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
9.6%

Draw
16.7%

Manchester City
73.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

22.9%

56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

24.8%

61.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monaco's form might have worsened.

Manchester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Manchester City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monaco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester City than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manchester City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.3%	7.4%	87.4%

Monaco - Manchester City Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (1.72) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +1, 1st Half - Man City (1.54) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Man City (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Man City (1.88) (votes: 3 - 60%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Monaco (2.58) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Half - Man City (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Man City (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Manchester City will win (82 of 92 users predict this - 89.13%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.77% – 95.49%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (48 of 51 users predict this - 94.12%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 63 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 5 - 7.9%). Man City (votes: 57 - 90.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 1.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kohn P. (G) 5. Kehrer T. (C) 3. Dier E. 22. Salisu M. 2. Vanderson 4. Teze J. 28. Coulibaly M. 27. Diatta K. 11. Akliouche M. 31. Fati A. 9. Balogun F.	25. Donnarumma G. (G) 5. Stones J. 3. Dias R. 24. Gvardiol J. 33. O'Reilly N. 16. Rodri 20. Silva B. (C) 47. Foden P. 4. Reijnders T. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.
Substitutes
14. Biereth M. 43. Cabral P. 12. Caio Henrique 17. Idumbo S. 19. Ilenikhena G. 50. Lienard Y. (G) 18. Minamino T. 20. Ouattara K. 40. Stawiecki J. (G)	6. Ake N. 13. Bettinelli M. (G) 52. Bobb O. 8. Kovacic M. 82. Lewis R. 63. Mukasa D. 14. Nico 27. Nunes M. 26. Savinho 1. Trafford J. (G)
Coaches
Hutter A.	Guardiola P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Haaland E. ⚽, Gvardiol J. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Teze J. ⚽, Diatta K. (A),
22', Vanderson ↓, Ouattara K. ↑,
39', Donnarumma G. 🟨,
44', 1 - 2, Haaland E. ⚽, O'Reilly N. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Rodri 🟨,
61', Doku J. ↓, Savinho ↑,
61', Rodri ↓, Nico ↑,
63', Diatta K. 🟨,
64', Fati A. ↓, Idumbo S. ↑,
72', Stones J. ↓, Nunes M. ↑,
82', Balogun F. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,
82', Coulibaly M. ↓, Cabral P. ↑,
82', Salisu M. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
88', Silva B. 🟨,
90', 2 - 2, Dier E. (Pen),
90+4', Savinho 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Monaco have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Man City is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Monaco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Man City is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Monaco: Golovin A. (Muscle Injury) Hradecky L. (Knee Injury) Mawissa C. (Muscle Injury) Michal L. (International duty) Pogba P. (Lacking Match Fitness) Zakaria D. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Man City: Ait Nouri R. (Ankle Injury) Cherki R. (Thigh Injury) Khusanov A. (Ankle Injury) Marmoush O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Monaco: Bamba A. (Hamstring Injury) Camara L. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Rodri (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 3:3).

Including home match between the teams, Monaco won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Manchester City - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 56.36%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
27.09.25	Lorient - Monaco	3:1 ✺
21.09.25	Monaco - Metz	5:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Club Brugge - Monaco	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.09.25	Auxerre - Monaco	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Monaco - Strasbourg	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLWW
- Manchester City
English Premier League
27.09.25	Manchester City - Burnley	5:1 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.25	Huddersfield Town - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.25	Arsenal - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Manchester City - Napoli	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
14.09.25	Manchester City - Manchester United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
15.03.17	Monaco - Manchester City	3:1
21.02.17	Manchester City - Monaco	5:3

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