Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Manchester City		Burnley

	1	X	2
	1.17	7.5	15
	1.2	7.4	13.5
	1.2	7.75	16.5
	1.20	6.58	12.41	Watch
	1.23	7.39	14.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↑ (1.19)	7.32 ↓ (7.76)	14.42 ↑ (13.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester City
80.2%

Draw
13.1%

Burnley
6.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

80.6%

12.4%

7.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.2%	7.3%	2.4%

Manchester City - Burnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Man City will win (votes: 36 - 90%). Burnley will win (votes: 1 - 2.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man City: 80.7% – 99.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Man City (1.96) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Manchester City will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Man City (votes: 18 - 90%). Burnley (votes: 1 - 5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Donnarumma G. (G) 27. Nunes M. 3. Dias R. (C) 24. Gvardiol J. 33. O'Reilly N. 14. Nico 26. Savinho 4. Reijnders T. 47. Foden P. 11. Doku J. 9. Haaland E.	1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 29. Laurent J. 18. Ekdal H. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 17. Tchaouna L. 24. Cullen J. (C) 16. Florentino 11. Anthony J. 9. Foster L.
Substitutes
6. Ake N. 52. Bobb O. 8. Kovacic M. 82. Lewis R. 56. McAidoo R. 63. Mukasa D. 20. Silva B. 5. Stones J. 1. Trafford J. (G)	27. Broja A. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 10. Edwards M. 19. Flemming Z. 12. Humphreys B. 28. Mejbri H. 8. Ugochukwu L. 13. Weiss M. (G) 4. Worrall J.
Coaches
Guardiola P.	Parker S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Esteve M. (Own goal),
27', Hartman Q. 🟨,
30', Walker K. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Anthony J. ⚽, Hartman Q. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
61', 2 - 1, Nunes M. ⚽, Haaland E. (A),
62', Tchaouna L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
62', Savinho ↓, Bobb O. ↑,
63', Anthony J. 🟨,
65', 3 - 1, Esteve M. (Own goal),
70', Gvardiol J. ↓, Ake N. ↑,
79', Cullen J. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
80', Foster L. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
83', Foden P. 🟨,
83', Reijnders T. ↓, Silva B. ↑,
83', O'Reilly N. ↓, Lewis R. ↑,
88', Hartman Q. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
88', Anthony J. ↓, Humphreys B. ↑,
90', 4 - 1, Haaland E. ⚽, Doku J. (A),
90+3', 5 - 1, Haaland E. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Man City won 5.

Man City is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Burnley is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Man City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Burnley has had a series of home games.

In this match, Man City is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Man City: Ait Nouri R. (Ankle Injury) Cherki R. (Thigh Injury) Kovacic M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Marmoush O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Man City: Khusanov A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Bruun Larsen J. (Knock)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Man City won 17 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 60:9. (average 3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Man City won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 42:5. (average 3.8:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester City
English League Cup
24.09.25	Huddersfield Town - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.25	Arsenal - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Manchester City - Napoli	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
14.09.25	Manchester City - Manchester United	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWWL
- Burnley FC
English League Cup
23.09.25	Burnley - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Burnley - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Manchester United - Burnley	3:2 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burnley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
31.01.24	Manchester City - Burnley	3:1
11.08.23	Burnley - Manchester City	0:3
English FA Cup
18.03.23	Manchester City - Burnley	6:0
English Premier League
02.04.22	Burnley - Manchester City	0:2
16.10.21	Manchester City - Burnley	2:0
03.02.21	Burnley - Manchester City	0:2
28.11.20	Manchester City - Burnley	5:0

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