What is the expert prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Newcastle United?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Paris Saint-Germain vs Newcastle United. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Paris Saint-Germain vs Newcastle United Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, January 28, 2026)

Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 8

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Parc des Princes (Paris)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Variety 2
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 4
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 8, Pickx+ Sports 8, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3, Viaplay 1 Urheilu
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport 5, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, SCTV, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player
Italy	Sky Sport 257
Japan	Wowow Live
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	TDM TV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 6
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
North-central-america	ESPN 5 Norte, Flow Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Canal+ Extra 7
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Connect, beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Kanal A
South-africa	SuperSport Variety 2
South-america	Space Latin America, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 6, M+ Liga de Campeones 7
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Futbol 7, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 3, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Plus, TV 360, VTV Prime
World	VIX App


	Paris Saint-Germain		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.75	4.75
	1.53	4.6	5.25
	1.58	4.9	5.05
	1.57	4.9	5.2
	1.62	4.92	4.77	Watch
	1.57	4.4	4.6
	1.67	4.98	4.67
	1.57	5	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.41)	4.81 ↓ (5.11)	4.88 ↓ (7.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paris Saint-Germain
60.4%

Draw
19.9%

Newcastle United
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

18.9%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.1%

18.3%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paris Saint-Germain's form might have worsened.

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Newcastle United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paris Saint-Germain, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Newcastle United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.4%	6.2%	8.3%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. PSG will win (votes: 41 - 85.4%). Newcastle will win (votes: 4 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 6.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 75.4% – 95.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 71.4%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1 - PSG (1.82) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.75 - PSG (1.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - PSG (1.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (15 of 20 users predict this - 75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 24 - 82.8%). Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Safonov M. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 87. Neves J. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 10. Dembele O. 29. Barcola B.	1. Pope N. (G) 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. (C) 67. Miley L. 41. Ramsey J. 8. Tonali S. 3. Hall L. 20. Elanga A. 27. Woltemade N. 28. Willock J.
Substitutes
4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 14. Doue D. 21. Hernandez L. 60. James M. (G) 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 9. Ramos G. 6. Zabarnyi I.	11. Barnes H. 39. Bruno Guimaraes 10. Gordon A. 58. Harris A. (G) 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 61. Shahar L. 2. Trippier K. 9. Wissa Y.
Coaches
Luis Enrique	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', Dembele O. (Penalty Awarded),
8', 1 - 0, Vitinha ⚽, Kvaratskhelia K. (A),
20', Elanga A. 🟨,
23', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Doue D. ↑,
45+2', 1 - 1, Willock J. ⚽, Burn D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
68', Elanga A. ↓, Gordon A. ↑,
68', Willock J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
70', Barcola B. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
79', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
87', Neves J. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
87', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Mayulu S. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.

In this match, PSG is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in PSG: Fernandez D. (Inactive) Lee Kang-In (Thigh Injury) Ndjantou Q. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Gillespie M. (Inactive) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Murphy J. (Hamstring Injury) Ruddy J. (Inactive) Schar F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Ankle Injury) Joelinton (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, PSG won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, PSG won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

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Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

PSG: 30.25%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
23.01.26	Auxerre - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.01.26	Sporting Lisbon - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
16.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lille	3:0 ✺
Coupe De France
12.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Paris FC	0:1 ✺
French Super Cup
08.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWLW
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
25.01.26	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Newcastle United - PSV Eindhoven	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
18.01.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
13.01.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
28.11.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Newcastle United	1:1
04.10.23	Newcastle United - Paris Saint-Germain	4:1

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