Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Cardinale Stadium (Seaside, CA)

Referee: Corrigan M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	Monterey Bay		Birmingham Legion

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.35
	2.62	3.45	2.38
	2.74	3.54	2.49
	2.7	3.56	2.4	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.38
	2.6	3.32	2.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↓ (2.8)	3.4 ↑ (3.1)	2.39 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterey Bay
34.8%

Draw
27%

Birmingham Legion
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

28.7%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

28.5%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterey Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Monterey Bay - Birmingham Legion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Delgado F. (G) 22. Garcia J. 5. Gordon N. (C) 32. Farnsworth Z. 17. Glasgow O. 4. Ross N. 14. Nakamura R. 11. Leggett W. 9. Bidois R. 19. Nadje C. 20. Paul I.	1. Koleilat J. (G) 21. Tregarthen S. 5. Hughes K. 3. Kavita P. 11. McCartney D. (C) 18. Antwi S. 8. Cole K. 16. Vassell P. 15. Pasher T. 19. Diarbian G. 9. Damus R.
Substitutes
18. Belmar J. 23. Blancas E. 33. Carbajal D. 31. Dalton C. (G) 25. Egwu K. 88. Lletget S. 8. Lomtadze G. 6. Malesevic L.	77. Brown N. 2. Duru L. 12. McMullen T. (G) 7. Saucedo S. 10. Shashoua S. 27. Washington B. 17. Williams R.
Coaches
Covelo A.	Heaps J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Hughes K. 🟨,
44', Heaps J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Nadje C. ↓, Lletget S. ↑,
58', Leggett W. ↓, Blancas E. ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Bidois R. ⚽, Lletget S. (A),
64', Vassell P. ↓, Shashoua S. ↑,
72', Bidois R. ↓, Lomtadze G. ↑,
74', Cole K. ↓, Duru L. ↑,
74', Damus R. ↓, Williams R. ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Blancas E. ⚽, Paul I. (A),
80', Pasher T. ↓, Saucedo S. ↑,
80', McCartney D. ↓, Brown N. ↑,
83', Glasgow O. 🟨,
85', Williams R. 🟨,
88', Delgado F. 🟨,
90+5', Garcia J. ↓, Malesevic L. ↑,
90+5', Paul I. ↓, Egwu K. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 12 and 9).

Monterey Bay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Birmingham has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Monterey Bay won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Birmingham Legion - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 39.54%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monterey Bay FC
USL Cup
16.05.26	Boise - Monterey Bay	4:3 ✺
USL Championship
08.05.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:1 ✺
03.05.26	Monterey Bay - Tulsa	1:2 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Monterey Bay - Oakland Roots	2:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Monterey Bay	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLWL
- Birmingham Legion
USL Cup
16.05.26	Chattanooga Red Wolves - Birmingham Legion	1:2 penalties ✺
USL Championship
07.05.26	Birmingham Legion - Miami	0:0 ✺
02.05.26	Rhode Island - Birmingham Legion	1:3 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	San Antonio - Birmingham Legion	1:0 penalties ✺
USL Championship
19.04.26	Birmingham Legion - Indy Eleven	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
10.08.24	Monterey Bay - Birmingham Legion	1:2
08.10.23	Birmingham Legion - Monterey Bay	2:0

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