Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Cardinale Stadium (Seaside, CA)

Referee: Nichols A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Monterey Bay		Louisville City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4	3.4	1.87	Watch
	4.57	3.65	1.8
	4.51	3.56	1.78	Watch
	4.41	3.36	1.83	Watch
	4	3.4	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.3 ↑ (4.23)	3.47 ↑ (3.43)	1.83 ↑ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monterey Bay
21.8%

Draw
27%

Louisville City
51.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

26.9%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

26.1%

52.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterey Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

The chances for Louisville City have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterey Bay than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Monterey Bay - Louisville City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campuzano N. (G) 22. Garcia J. 2. Gordon N. (C) 5. Guzman C. 28. Guediri S. 4. Lara A. 6. Fonguck W. 7. Rebollar A. 13. Fehr M. 11. Malango M. 20. Paul I.	12. Faundez D. (G) 4. Totsch S. 5. Ordonez A. 32. Adams K. (C) 15. Perez E. 17. Davila T. 31. Lambert K. 13. Dia A. 25. Wilson J. 7. Serrano R. 16. Perez A.
Substitutes
8. Bryant E. 14. Gallaway P. 18. Gomez S. (G) 31. Ivanovic L. 9. Larsson A. 15. Lyons M. 12. Robinson G.	70. Cano I. 27. Davila E. 24. Jones J. 1. Las D. (G) 11. McCabe N. 2. McFadden A. 8. Moguel C.
Coaches
Stewart J.	Cruz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Lara A. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Totsch S. ⚽, Davila T. (A),
24', Lambert K. 🟨,
43', Dia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Guediri S. ↓, Robinson G. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Perez E. ⚽,
66', Fehr M. ↓, Larsson A. ↑,
66', Paul I. ↓, Ivanovic L. ↑,
70', Perez E. ↓, McFadden A. ↑,
70', Lambert K. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
78', Malango M. ↓, Bryant E. ↑,
82', McFadden A. 🟨,
85', Rebollar A. 🟨,
90', Dia A. ↓, Cano I. ↑,
90', Serrano R. ↓, Davila E. ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ))

Monterey Bay is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Louisville City's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Monterey Bay has had a series of away games.

Recently, Louisville City has had a series of home games.

In this match, Louisville City is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Monterey Bay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Monterey Bay won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monterey Bay FC
USL Championship
17.05.25	Phoenix Rising - Monterey Bay	2:0 ✺
10.05.25	Rhode Island - Monterey Bay	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Monterey Bay - Miami	1:1 ✺
23.04.25	New Mexico United - Monterey Bay	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Lexington - Monterey Bay	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTTLT
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
17.05.25	Hartford Athletic - Louisville City	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	Louisville City - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0:0 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Louisville City - Minnesota United	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
01.05.25	Louisville City - Lexington	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Louisville City - Richmond Kickers	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
27.07.24	Louisville City - Monterey Bay	4:1
18.03.23	Monterey Bay - Louisville City	0:1
21.05.22	Louisville City - Monterey Bay	0:2

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