Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 7

Date: 6 October 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Brianteo (Monza) 🌤️ ...

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Select 1
Albania	18:00	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	13:00	ESPN 3
Asia	—	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Australia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	18:00	DAZN
Belgium	18:00	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Bulgaria	19:00	Max Sport 3
Canada	12:00	TLN, VIVA
Chile	13:00	ESPN 3
China	00:00	QQ Sports
Colombia	11:00	ESPN 3
Croatia	18:00	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	18:00	Sport 2
Denmark	18:00	TV2 Play
Finland	19:00	MTV Katsomo+
Georgia	20:00	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	18:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	19:00	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	00:00	M Plus Live
Hungary	18:00	Net4+ Sport
India	21:30	GXR World
Indonesia	23:00	Vidio
Israel	19:00	ONE Sport 2
Italy	18:00	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	01:00	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	18:00	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Motion Sport 2, ART Sport 2
Macao	00:00	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malta	18:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Montenegro	18:00	Arena Sport 3
Netherlands	18:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	05:00	beIN Connect
North Macedonia	18:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	18:00	VG+
Poland	18:00	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	17:00	Sport TV4
Romania	19:00	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	19:00	MATCH! Futbol 1, Sportbox.ru
Saudi Arabia	19:00	STC TV
Spain	18:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	18:00	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	18:00	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tanzania	19:00	Azam Sports 3, Azam Sports 4
Turkey	19:00	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	19:00	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Arab Emirates	20:00	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Usa	12:00	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Venezuela	12:00	Inter
Vietnam	23:00	K+, ON Plus, ON Sport, TV 360
International	16:00	Disney+, Onefootball app


	Monza		Roma

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	2	Watch
	3.9	3.25	2
	3.9	3.35	2.02	Watch
	4.22	3.35	2.02
	4.23	3.34	2	Watch
	4.2	3.25	2
	4.24	3.46	2.04	Watch
	4	3.4	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.09 ↑ (3.81)	3.34 ↓ (3.4)	2.02 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Italian Serie A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Monza
23.5%

Draw
28.8%

Roma
47.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.1%

28.1%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

28.3%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.8%	6.7%	85.6%

Monza - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: Roma will win (76 of 87 users predict this - 87.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.38% – 94.34%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 4. Izzo A. 22. Mari P. 44. Carboni A. 13. Pereira P. 38. Bondo W. 42. Bianco A. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 32. Pessina M. (C) 14. Maldini D. 11. Djuric M.	99. Svilar M. (G) 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 3. Angelino 19. Celik Z. 17. Kone M. 4. Cristante B. 92. El Shaarawy S. 18. Soule M. 7. Pellegrini Lo. (C) 11. Dovbyk A.
Substitutes
5. Caldirola L. 10. Caprari G. 84. Ciurria P. 33. D'Ambrosio D. 20. Forson O. 24. Maric M. 55. Martins K. 69. Mazza A. (G) 47. Mota D. 56. Vailati A. (G) 27. Valoti M.	12. Abdulhamid S. 35. Baldanzi T. 66. Buba Aboubacar 26. Dahl S. 22. Hermoso M. 28. Le Fee E. 89. Marin R. (G) 16. Paredes L. 61. Pisilli N. 98. Ryan M. (G) 14. Shomurodov E. 59. Zalewski N.
Coaches
Nesta A.	Juric I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', El Shaarawy S. ↓, Zalewski N. ↑,
26', Soule M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Kyriakopoulos G. 🟨,
61', 0 - 1, Dovbyk A. ⚽,
63', Bianco A. ↓, Mota D. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Mota D. ⚽,
71', Soule M. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
71', Angelino ↓, Hermoso M. ↑,
73', Pereira P. ↓, D'Ambrosio D. ↑,
86', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Shomurodov E. ↑,
86', Celik Z. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
88', Maldini D. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
90+1', Djuric M. 🟨,
90+3', D'Ambrosio D. 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 10).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Roma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Roma will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Monza: Ciurria P. (Knee Injury) Cragno A. (Shoulder Injury) Gagliardini R. (Injury) Vignato S. (Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Dybala P. (Injury) Hummels M. (Illness) Le Fee E. (Muscle Injury) Saelemaekers A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Birindelli S. (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Monza won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:9 (average 0.5:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Monza won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:5 (average 1:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
29.09.24	Napoli - Monza	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
26.09.24	Monza - Brescia	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.09.24	Monza - Bologna	1:2 ✺
15.09.24	Monza - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Fiorentina - Monza	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LWLTT
- AS Roma
UEFA Europa League
03.10.24	Elfsborg - Roma	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
29.09.24	Roma - Venezia	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.09.24	Roma - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.09.24	Roma - Udinese	3:0 ✺
15.09.24	Genoa - Roma	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.03.24	Monza - Roma	1:4
22.10.23	Roma - Monza	1:0
03.05.23	Monza - Roma	1:1
30.08.22	Roma - Monza	3:0

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