Match Info

Liga 2 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio 25 de Noviembre (Moquegua)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	ATV


	Moquegua		ADA Jaén

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.4	4.35
	1.69	3.38	4.26
	3.50	3.05	2.16	Watch
	1.7	3.44	4.57
	1.72	3.2	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.74)	3.29 ↓ (3.35)	3.91 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Moquegua
46.4%

Draw
29.1%

ADA Jaén
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.2%

27.1%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

26.6%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Moquegua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moquegua's form might have worsened.

ADA Jaén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moquegua than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moquegua, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ADA Jaén than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Moquegua - ADA Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Figueroa R. (G) 17. Aguirre C. 11. Centurion L. 10. Chavez N. 90. Collazos J. 30. Granda J. (C) 6. Jimenez J. 7. Lasso C. 22. Montenegro E. 4. Rivera B. 5. Vasquez J.	1. Rojas S. (G) 22. Acevedo G. 17. Crespo H. 11. Cubas A. 7. Duque L. 19. Labrin V. 37. Maciel E. 9. Rodriguez F. 44. Rossi E. 18. Salinas T. 3. Villalta M.
Substitutes
66. Delgado M. 23. Jimenez J. 28. Lopez J. 14. Ramirez C. 18. Rodriguez L. 77. Ruiz K. 8. Sanchez D. 19. Santibanez S. 49. Valladares G. (G)	10. Aponza S. 13. Cano L. 32. Cassiano F. . Edu R. 15. Lopez D. . Lozada J. (G) 5. Tapia Vargas P. 31. Temoche D. 20. Valencia J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Granda J. 🟨,
9', 0 - 1, Rodriguez F. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Lasso C. ↓, Ruiz K. ↑,
58', Rivera B. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
58', Aguirre C. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
59', Crespo H. ↓, Temoche D. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Chavez N. ⚽,
68', Maciel E. 🟨,
68', 2 - 1, Chavez N. ⚽,
72', Cubas A. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
72', Maciel E. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
73', Centurion L. ↓, Ramirez C. ↑,
82', Lopez D. 🟨,
83', Labrin V. ↓, Cano L. ↑,
83', Rodriguez F. ↓, Aponza S. ↑,
85', Collazos J. ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Moquegua may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Moquegua is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Moquegua won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Moquegua
Peruvian Liga 2
21.09.25	Universidad César Vallejo - Moquegua	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Moquegua - Carlos A. Mannucci	6:2 ✺
06.09.25	Cajamarca - Moquegua	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	Moquegua - Bentín Tacna Heroica	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Moquegua - Universidad César Vallejo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWLTW
- ADA Jaén
Peruvian Liga 2
13.09.25	ADA Jaén - Unión Comercio	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Santos - ADA Jaén	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	ADA Jaén - Comerciantes Belén	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	San Marcos - ADA Jaén	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Unión Comercio - ADA Jaén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Copa
22.11.23	ADA Jaén - Moquegua	1:0

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