The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Morecambe 25.6%
Draw 27.1%
Oxford United 47.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35.7%
28.2%
36.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34.6%
27.4%
37.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Morecambe's form might have worsened.
Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Oxford United's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Morecambe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-10.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Oxford United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
58.3%
16.7%
25%
Morecambe - Oxford United Predictions
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Oxford will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for Morecambe: 30.4% – 86.2%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 19).
Morecambe has the most likely position - 22 (34.9%), project points - 40, currently - 33, a good chance of relegated (85%), not chance of prom. playoffs.
Oxford has the most likely position - 18 (18.65%), project points - 49, currently - 36, a small chance of relegated (12%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.
This event has small quality14, importance42, small match rating28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 1.
Morecambe is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Oxford has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Oxford could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Oxford will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 11 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-16.
Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-7.
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