Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 21

Date: 14 March 2023, Tuesday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Haines A. (Eng)


	Morecambe		Charlton Athletic

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.2
	3.1	3.3	2.25
	2.95	3.45	2.38
	3.15	3.3	2.18
	3.31	3.33	2.32
	3.2	3.2	2.25
	3.15	3.36	2.26	Watch
	3.2	3.35	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↓ (3.64)	3.32 ↓ (3.33)	2.26 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
29.8%

Draw
28.4%

Charlton Athletic
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

27.8%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

26.4%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Charlton Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Charlton Athletic than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45%	40%	15%

Morecambe - Charlton Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Morecambe will win (votes: 9 - 45%). Charlton will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Morecambe: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 17).

Morecambe has the most likely position - 24 (28.16%), has project points - 40, has currently - 15, has a good chance of relegated (75%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Charlton has the most likely position - 12 (7.81%), has project points - 61, has currently - 24, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 16, small importance 26, small match rating 21. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Morecambe is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Charlton has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Charlton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Charlton will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English League One
11.03.23	Shrewsbury Town - Morecambe	3:1 ✺
07.03.23	Cambridge United - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
04.03.23	Morecambe - Bolton Wanderers	0:0 ✺
25.02.23	Fleetwood Town - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
21.02.23	Morecambe - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LTTLW
- Charlton Athletic
English League One
11.03.23	Charlton Athletic - Accrington Stanley	1:1 ✺
04.03.23	Plymouth Argyle - Charlton Athletic	2:0 ✺
28.02.23	Peterborough United - Charlton Athletic	0:0 ✺
25.02.23	Charlton Athletic - Sheffield Wednesday	0:1 ✺
18.02.23	Derby County - Charlton Athletic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
15.04.22	Charlton Athletic - Morecambe	2:3
23.11.21	Morecambe - Charlton Athletic	2:2

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