Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 23

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Bestard Servera L. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Greece	Nova Sports 6
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Málaga		Burgos

	1	X	2
	2.01	3	4	Watch
	2.08	2.98	3.75	Watch
	2.13	3.07	4.27
	2.06	3.08	4.12	Watch
	2.1	2.88	3.9
	2.11	3.05	4.17	Watch
	2.08	3	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.45)	3.01 ↑ (2.96)	4.03 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
45.3%

Draw
31.3%

Burgos
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

31.6%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

30.9%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Málaga's performance.

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burgos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Málaga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burgos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84%	4%	12%

Málaga - Burgos Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 20 - 83.3%). Burgos will win (votes: 3 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 68.4% – 98.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.25 - Málaga (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Málaga (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Málaga will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (G) 3. Puga C. 16. Murillo D. 4. Galilea E. 31. Rafita 12. Dotor C. 23. Merino I. 22. Lorenzo D. 10. Larrubia D. 9. Chupe 11. Munoz J.	13. Cantero A. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 6. Gonzalez S. 8. Sierra G. 12. Miguel F. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 5. Atienza M. 23. Morante I. 21. Cordoba I. 7. Mejia M. 16. Curro
Substitutes
7. Abaida H. 25. Dorrio J. 2. Gabilondo J. 17. Jauregi E. 8. Juanpe 13. Lopez C. (G) 20. Montero J. 21. Nino A. 35. Ochoa A. 36. Recio A. 37. Rodriguez R.	10. Appin K. 15. Bunuel A. 17. Cantero M. 28. del Cerro S. 33. Exposito M. 31. Garcia F. 35. Gonzalez D. (G) 20. Gonzalez M. 22. Martinez B. 36. Martinez I. 11. Mollejo V. 1. Ruiz J. (G)
Coaches
Funes J.	Ramis L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', Curro 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Larrubia D. ⚽,
35', Mejia M. 🟨,
38', 2 - 0, Chupe ⚽, Puga C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mejia M. ↓, Appin K. ↑,
64', Curro ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
71', Dotor C. 🟨,
71', Munoz J. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
72', Dotor C. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
72', Cordoba I. ↓, Mollejo V. ↑,
72', Lizancos A. ↓, Bunuel A. ↑,
78', Chupe ↓, Nino A. ↑,
79', Lorenzo D. ↓, Dorrio J. ↑,
86', 3 - 0, Nino A. ⚽, Ochoa A. (A),
87', Merino I. ↓, Juanpe ↑,
87', Murillo D. 🟨,
90+1', Miguel F. ↓, Martinez B. ↑,
90+2', Mollejo V. 🟨,
90+2', Atienza M. 🟨,
90+3', Puga C. 🟨,
90+4', Gonzalez S. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 0.

Málaga has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Burgos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Burgos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Burgos has had a series of home games.

Málaga might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Málaga: Brasanac D. (Knee Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Garcia V. (Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury) Sanchez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Burgos: Chapela I. (Injury) Cordoba A. (Inactive) Nino F. (Red Card)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Burgos CF	8	4	2	2	12:9	3	14

Last Results with these Odds

Málaga - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 38.04%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Burgos - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 30.4%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
18.01.26	Córdoba - Málaga	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Málaga - Ceuta	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Málaga - Telstar	Canceled ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
04.01.26	Sporting de Gijón - Málaga	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Málaga - Almería	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.9 WW?WW
- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
18.01.26	Burgos - Huesca	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
15.01.26	Burgos - Valencia	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
10.01.26	Burgos - Eibar	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Córdoba - Burgos	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Burgos - Zaragoza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
28.09.25	Burgos - Málaga	2:1
31.05.25	Málaga - Burgos	2:2
15.12.24	Burgos - Málaga	0:0
21.01.23	Málaga - Burgos	1:1
14.08.22	Burgos - Málaga	1:0
21.05.22	Málaga - Burgos	0:1
27.11.21	Burgos - Málaga	3:0

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