Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 29

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Morilla A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1
Australia	beIN Connect
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 8
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium 2
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 3
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2, Orange Futbol 2
Thailand	beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Málaga		Valladolid

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.3	Watch
	1.98	3.2	3.6
	2.1	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.24	3.25	3.6
	2.18	3.22	3.54	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.4
	2.19	3.36	3.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.97)	3.23 ↓ (3.5)	3.46 ↓ (3.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
43.9%

Draw
29%

Valladolid
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

27%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.2%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Valladolid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valladolid than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	37.5%	0%

Málaga - Valladolid Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 10 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Málaga (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (C) 31. Rafita 16. Murillo D. 20. Montero J. 14. Garcia V. 12. Dotor C. 23. Merino I. 22. Lorenzo D. 10. Larrubia D. 9. Chupe 11. Munoz J.	13. Guilherme Fernandes (G) 14. Alejo I. 15. Tomeo P. 5. Martinez R. 18. Clerc C. 21. Ponceau J. 24. Juric S. (C) 22. Peter Federico 20. Chuki 7. Canos S. 10. Marcos Andre
Substitutes
7. Abaida H. 25. Dorrio J. 2. Gabilondo J. 17. Jauregi E. 8. Juanpe 24. Lobete J. 13. Lopez C. (G) 21. Nino A. 35. Ochoa A. 36. Recio A. 37. Rodriguez R. 18. Sanchez D.	1. Aceves A. (G) 12. Alani I. 17. Biuk S. 25. Erlien V. 27. Garriel I. 23. Jaouab M. 6. Lachuer M. 9. Latasa J. 8. Meseguer Cavas V. A. 2. Michelin C. 39. Ohio N. 19. Sanseviero L.
Coaches
Funes J.	Escriba F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Chupe (Penalty Awarded),
14', 2 - 0, Dotor C. ⚽,
29', Montero J. 🟨,
36', Clerc C. ↓, Garriel I. ↑,
45+6', 2 - 1, Peter Federico ⚽, Juric S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Montero J. ↓, Recio A. ↑,
48', 3 - 1, Chupe ⚽, Garcia V. (A),
56', Garcia V. 🟥,
58', Munoz J. ↓, Gabilondo J. ↑,
64', Ponceau J. ↓, Meseguer Cavas V. A. ↑,
64', Canos S. ↓, Latasa J. ↑,
65', 3 - 2, Chupe (Own goal),
66', Martinez R. 🟨,
72', Chupe ↓, Nino A. ↑,
72', Dotor C. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
84', Peter Federico ↓, Biuk S. ↑,
84', Juric S. ↓, Erlien V. ↑,
85', Gabilondo J. 🟨,
88', Lorenzo D. ↓, Juanpe ↑,
90+1', Juanpe 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 3, Latasa J. ⚽, Chuki (A),
90+6', Latasa J. 🟨,
90+7', Merino I. 🟨,
90+13', Tomeo P. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 1.

Recent performances by Málaga have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Valladolid is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Málaga might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Málaga: Brasanac D. (Knee Injury) Enriquez R. (Knee Injury) Galilea E. (Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury) Puga C. (Yellow Cards) Sanchez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Valladolid: Bueno G. (Injury) Maroto M. (Coach's decision) Ndiaye A. (Leg Injury) Torres D. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Valladolid	8	2	3	3	8:11	-3	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
28.02.26	Granada - Málaga	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Málaga - Albacete Balompié	1:0 ✺
16.02.26	Real Sociedad B - Málaga	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Málaga - Leonesa	2:1 ✺
02.02.26	Mirandés - Málaga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWLWL
- Real Valladolid
Spanish LaLiga2
28.02.26	Valladolid - Huesca	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Sporting de Gijón - Valladolid	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Granada - Valladolid	5:1 ✺
08.02.26	Valladolid - Castellón	0:4 ✺
31.01.26	Córdoba - Valladolid	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
29.11.25	Valladolid - Málaga	1:1
09.04.22	Málaga - Valladolid	2:2
08.10.21	Valladolid - Málaga	1:1
Club Friendly
23.08.20	Málaga - Valladolid	1:0
Spanish LaLiga
01.03.14	Málaga - Valladolid	1:1
27.09.13	Valladolid - Málaga	2:2
09.03.13	Valladolid - Málaga	1:1

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