Match Info

Date: 17 July 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Ribeiro Serafim D. (Bra)


	Náutico Capibaribe		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.7
	2.12	2.8	3.7
	2.12	2.9	3.65
	2.22	2.95	4.1
	2.2	2.8	3.75
	2.22	2.86	3.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.56)	2.87 ↓ (3.04)	3.79 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
43%

Draw
32.4%

Chapecoense
24.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

30.7%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

30.3%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chapecoense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Náutico Capibaribe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chapecoense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.4%	63.4%	12.2%

Náutico Capibaribe - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 10 - 24.4%). Chapecoense will win (votes: 5 - 12.2%). It will Tie (votes: 26 - 63.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 48.7% – 78.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage)).

Recent matches Náutico is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chapecoense is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chapecoense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Náutico: Bryan (Injury) Djavan (Injury) Hereda D. (Injury) Kieza (Injury) Leo Passos (Injury) Wellington (Injury)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Tiepo (Injury)

There are questionable in Náutico: Ailton (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Náutico won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Náutico won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
08.07.22	Grêmio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
02.07.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:1 ✺
29.06.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	1:1 ✺
26.06.22	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
18.06.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWTTT
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
09.07.22	Tombense - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
05.07.22	Chapecoense - Londrina	0:3 ✺
01.07.22	Chapecoense - Sampaio Corrêa	3:1 ✺
27.06.22	Operário Ferroviario - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
21.06.22	Chapecoense - CRB Maceio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.12.20	Chapecoense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
18.09.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Chapecoense	1:1

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