Match Info

Serie B - Round 19

Date: 22 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Referee: Correia B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SporTV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Náutico Capibaribe		Londrina

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.5	4.2
	1.80	3.40	4.10
	1.88	3.35	3.95
	1.96	3.5	4.42
	1.87	3.46	4.18	Watch
	1.87	3.45	4.35
	1.84	3.49	4.18
	1.89	3.35	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.65)	3.44 ↓ (3.7)	4.17 ↓ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
50.3%

Draw
27.3%

Londrina
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.5%

25.2%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

24.7%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Capibaribe's form might have worsened.

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Londrina (4.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Londrina (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Náutico Capibaribe will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Londrina (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (C) 2. Arnaldo 46. Gustavo Henrique 15. Leo Indio 23. Igor Fernandes 41. Samuel Felix 8. Wenderson 27. Luiz Felipe 20. Jean Carlos 72. Derek 19. Kauan Maranhao	30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 75. Kaue Leonardo 3. Yago Lincoln 15. Gabriel Lacerda (C) 34. Heron 5. Tarik 7. Vitinho Mota 32. Joao Tavares 20. Joao Vitor 11. Pablo Dyego 18. Paulinho Moccelin
Substitutes
5. Auremir 3. Betao 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 18. Halan 37. Juan Rikelme 14. Matheus Ribeiro 35. Matuto 93. Reginaldo 11. Victor Andrade 34. Wanderson	22. Artur 44. Caio Rodrigues 9. Gilberto 33. Kevyn 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 8. Lucas Marques 27. Murilo Sousa 2. Nino Paraiba 6. Rafael Monteiro 28. Rai Nascimento 4. Wallace
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Rogerio Micale

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Kauan Maranhao ⚽, Jean Carlos (A),
38', Jean Carlos 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kaue Leonardo ↓, Rai Nascimento ↑,
46', Joao Tavares ↓, Lucas Marques ↑,
46', Vitinho Mota ↓, Nino Paraiba ↑,
49', Heron 🟨,
56', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
58', Pablo Dyego ↓, Gilberto ↑,
59', Samuel Felix 🟨,
74', 2 - 0, Jean Carlos (Penalty Awarded),
75', Kauan Maranhao ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
75', Derek ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
77', Luiz Claudio 🟨,
81', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Gabriel Lacerda ⚽, Joao Vitor (A),
87', Tarik ↓, Kevyn ↑,
89', Jean Carlos ↓, Auremir ↑,
89', Samuel Felix ↓, Wanderson ↑,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 and 16)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1.

Náutico has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Londrina is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Náutico is considered a favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40:47	-7	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
16.07.26	CRB Maceio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
12.07.26	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
05.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Goiás	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
17.07.26	Londrina - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
13.07.26	América Mineiro - Londrina	1:1 ✺
04.07.26	Londrina - CRB Maceio	5:0 ✺
25.06.26	Cuiabá - Londrina	2:2 ✺
20.06.26	Londrina - Athletic Club	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
10.08.25	Londrina - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2
24.08.24	Londrina - Náutico Capibaribe	3:2
Brazilian Serie B
23.07.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	1:2
10.04.22	Londrina - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
21.09.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	1:2
23.06.21	Londrina - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
11.11.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Londrina	1:2

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