Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 34

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Netherlands	ESPN Extra


	NAC Breda		Willem II

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	4.75	Watch
	1.88	3.5	4.1
	1.75	3.7	4.65	Watch
	1.79	3.95	4.77
	1.62	4.2	5.18	Watch
	1.85	3.5	4
	1.75	3.91	4.89	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2.34)	3.78 ↑ (3.2)	4.62 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
54.2%

Draw
25.2%

Willem II
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

29%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

26.8%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in NAC Breda's performance.

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Willem II might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NAC Breda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Willem II could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.2%	2.9%	5.9%

NAC Breda - Willem II Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 30 - 90.9%). Willem II will win (votes: 2 - 6.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breda: 81.1% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Breda (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): NAC Breda will win (21 of 21 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 22 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 25. Valerius C. 5. Van den Bergh J. (C) 12. Greiml L. 4. Kemper B. 55. Sowah K. 8. Leemans C. 16. Balard M. 77. Sauer L. 10. Omarsson E. 39. Janosek D.	1. Didillon T. (G) 33. St. Jago T. 6. Lambert B. 4. Schouten E. (C) 22. Nizet R. 34. Lachkar A. 16. Meerveld R. 30. Behounek R. 7. Doodeman N. 9. Vaesen K. 11. Kehrer E.
Substitutes
44. Busi M. 19. Fernandes S. 20. Jensen F. 23. Kongolo T. 9. Kostorz K. 17. Kuijpers R. 31. Lamprou K. (G) 15. Mahmutovic E. 28. Mol L. 11. Paula R. 6. Staring C. 29. van Hooijdonk S.	21. Ahmed Fatah A. 18. Bokila J. 8. Bosch J. 17. Joosten P. 77. Kaygin D. 48. Mathijsen J. 15. Pivas M. 41. Schut M. (G) 19. Sylla Y. 51. van Aalst U. 24. van den Berg C. (G) 50. van Loon P.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Aelbrecht K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Omarsson E. ⚽,
42', Greiml L. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Behounek R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', St. Jago T. ↓, Mathijsen J. ↑,
64', Janosek D. ↓, Fernandes S. ↑,
73', Meerveld R. ↓, Kaygin D. ↑,
73', Kehrer E. ↓, van Loon P. ↑,
73', Lachkar A. ↓, Bosch J. ↑,
75', Omarsson E. ↓, van Hooijdonk S. ↑,
75', Leemans C. ↓, Jensen F. ↑,
82', Fernandes S. 🟨,
85', Lambert B. ↓, Pivas M. ↑,
86', Sauer L. ↓, Paula R. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 2.

Breda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Willem II is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Willem II may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Breda is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Breda: Lucassen B. (Knee Injury) Versluis D. (Injury)

There will not play in Willem II: Behounek R. (Red Card) Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) Sandra C. (Injury) Sigurgeirsson R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Breda: Van den Bergh J. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Breda won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 23:21. (average 1.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
14.05.25	NEC Nijmegen - NAC Breda	3:0 ✺
10.05.25	Fortuna Sittard - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
04.05.25	NAC Breda - Zwolle	1:3 ✺
24.04.25	AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	NAC Breda - Go Ahead Eagles	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLLTT
- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
14.05.25	Willem II - Zwolle	1:2 ✺
09.05.25	Willem II - Heracles Almelo	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	NEC Nijmegen - Willem II	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Fortuna Sittard - Willem II	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Willem II - Ajax	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
24.11.24	Willem II - NAC Breda	2:2
Dutch Eerste Divisie
22.12.23	NAC Breda - Willem II	1:2
05.09.23	Willem II - NAC Breda	1:4
25.04.23	NAC Breda - Willem II	1:1
11.12.22	Willem II - NAC Breda	1:2
Dutch Eredivisie
20.01.19	Willem II - NAC Breda	2:0
21.10.18	NAC Breda - Willem II	2:2

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