Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 9

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN Extra


	NAC Breda		Zwolle

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.7	4	Watch
	2.08	3.7	3.35
	1.93	3.68	4.12
	1.75	3.62	4.62	Watch
	2.13	3.64	3.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.1)	3.67 ↓ (3.71)	3.89 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
49.2%

Draw
26.1%

Zwolle
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

25.6%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

23.7%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Zwolle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NAC Breda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zwolle than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zwolle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.1%	35.3%	17.6%

NAC Breda - Zwolle Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Zwolle will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breda: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Breda (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 25. Valerius C. 12. Greiml L. 22. Hillen R. 4. Kemper B. (C) 16. Balard M. 90. Holtby L. 7. Brym C. 10. Nassoh M. 14. Sowah K. 17. van Hooijdonk S.	1. Schendelaar J. (G) 6. Gooijer T. 28. Graves S. 4. Garcia MacNulty A. 2. Floranus S. 30. Thomas R. (C) 25. Oosting T. 35. Monteiro J. 19. Faberski J. 10. Kostons K. 22. de Rooij K.
Substitutes
21. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 20. Jensen F. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 2. Lucassen B. 15. Mahmutovic E. 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 6. Staring C. 32. Talvitie J.	3. Aertssen O. 29. Buitink T. 16. de Graaff T. (G) 34. Fichtinger N. 21. Lagsir S. 11. Mbayo D. 26. Pereira da Gama J. 20. Reiziger G. 42. Ruward D. 7. Shoretire S. 41. Verduin D. (G) 39. Voute D.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Van Der Vegt H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
22', Floranus S. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, van Hooijdonk S. ⚽, Holtby L. (A),
40', 2 - 0, van Hooijdonk S. (Pen),
43', 2 - 1, Kostons K. ⚽, Floranus S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Faberski J. ↓, Mbayo D. ↑,
60', Thomas R. ↓, Fichtinger N. ↑,
61', Gooijer T. ↓, Aertssen O. ↑,
64', Brym C. ↓, Talvitie J. ↑,
65', Graves S. 🟨,
67', 2 - 2, Monteiro J. ⚽, Fichtinger N. (A),
79', Nassoh M. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
79', Sowah K. ↓, Paula R. ↑,
79', Valerius C. ↓, Lucassen B. ↑,
83', de Rooij K. ↓, Shoretire S. ↑,
86', Holtby L. ↓, Reulen P. ↑,
87', Oosting T. 🟨,
90+2', Oosting T. ↓, Reiziger G. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 and 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 2.

Breda is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Zwolle has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Zwolle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Breda might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Breda: Soumano M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Zwolle: Buurmeester Z. (Ankle Injury) Manu B. M. (Suspended) Velanas O. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Breda: Kongolo T. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Zwolle: van der Haar D. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Breda won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.1:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
03.10.25	NAC Breda - Groningen	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Twente - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLWTL
- PEC Zwolle
Club Friendly
09.10.25	Heerenveen - Zwolle	4:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
04.10.25	Zwolle - PSV Eindhoven	0:4 ✺
27.09.25	Volendam - Zwolle	2:1 ✺
24.09.25	AZ Alkmaar - Zwolle	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Zwolle - Go Ahead Eagles	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
04.05.25	NAC Breda - Zwolle	1:3
20.10.24	Zwolle - NAC Breda	1:2
Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.03.23	Zwolle - NAC Breda	2:0
19.11.22	NAC Breda - Zwolle	0:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.01.22	NAC Breda - Zwolle	2:1
Dutch Eredivisie
15.05.19	NAC Breda - Zwolle	0:0
15.12.18	Zwolle - NAC Breda	0:0

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