Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 32

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday

Location: Koning Willem II Stadion (Tilburg)

Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	Willem II		Heracles Almelo

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.5	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.5	2.6
	2.68	3.35	2.62
	2.72	3.5	2.63
	2.7	3.38	2.6	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.62
	2.59	3.59	2.73	Watch
	2.68	3.35	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.04)	3.43 ↓ (3.67)	2.62 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Willem II
36.1%

Draw
27.7%

Heracles Almelo
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

25.7%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

25.8%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Willem II has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Willem II's form might have worsened.

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Heracles Almelo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Willem II than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Willem II, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Heracles Almelo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17%	10.6%	72.3%

Willem II - Heracles Almelo Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Willem II will win (votes: 8 - 17%). Heracles will win (votes: 34 - 72.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 10.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Heracles: 59.5% – 85.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Heracles (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH 0 - Heracles (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Heracles Almelo will win (20 of 25 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Willem II (votes: 3 - 11.1%). Heracles (votes: 22 - 81.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Didillon T. (G) 33. St. Jago T. 6. Lambert B. 4. Schouten E. (C) 22. Nizet R. 11. Kehrer E. 34. Lachkar A. 8. Bosch J. 16. Meerveld R. 18. Bokila J. 9. Vaesen K.	1. de Keijzer F. (G) 2. Benita M. 4. Mirani D. 24. Mesik I. 39. Rots M. 14. De Keersmaecker B. (C) 23. Talvitie J. 17. Bruns T. 29. Podgoreanu S. 19. Kulenovic L. 9. Hornkamp J.
Substitutes
21. Ahmed Fatah A. 7. Doodeman N. 17. Joosten P. 77. Kaygin D. 48. Mathijsen J. 15. Pivas M. 41. Schut M. (G) 19. Sylla Y. 25. Tirpan M. 51. van Aalst U. 24. van den Berg C. (G) 50. van Loon P.	8. Engels M. 16. Jansink T. (G) 18. Leerdam K. 7. Limbombe B. 30. Mantel R. (G) 22. Milani L. 27. Tijink J. 26. van Kaam D. 20. van Oorschot D. 3. Wieckhoff J. 13. Zamburek J.
Coaches
Aelbrecht K.	van de Looi E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Mesik I. ⚽, Bruns T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, Bokila J. ⚽, Kehrer E. (A),
64', Lachkar A. 🟨,
66', 1 - 2, Hornkamp J. (Pen),
69', Hornkamp J. ↓, Engels M. ↑,
70', Benita M. 🟨,
73', Bokila J. ↓, Tirpan M. ↑,
73', Lachkar A. ↓, Ahmed Fatah A. ↑,
81', De Keersmaecker B. ↓, Zamburek J. ↑,
81', Bruns T. ↓, van Kaam D. ↑,
83', Kehrer E. ↓, Joosten P. ↑,
83', Schouten E. ↓, Sylla Y. ↑,
90+2', Talvitie J. ↓, Wieckhoff J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 1.

Willem II is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Heracles has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Heracles may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Willem II: Mathieu D. (Knee Injury) Sandra C. (Injury) Sigurgeirsson R. (Injury) Tirpan M. (Illness)

There will not play in Heracles: Cestic S. (Broken ankle) Hoogma J. (Inactive) Laursen N. (Knee Injury) Scheperman S. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Willem II: Bosch J. (Injury) Meerveld R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Willem II won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 35:33. (average 1.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Willem II won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:6. (average 2.2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Willem II
Dutch Eredivisie
03.05.25	NEC Nijmegen - Willem II	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Fortuna Sittard - Willem II	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Willem II - Ajax	1:2 ✺
04.04.25	Heerenveen - Willem II	3:1 ✺
29.03.25	Willem II - Almere City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLLLL
- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
03.05.25	Heracles Almelo - Feyenoord	1:4 ✺
23.04.25	Groningen - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
13.04.25	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Waalwijk - Heracles Almelo	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Heracles Almelo - Twente	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
25.08.24	Heracles Almelo - Willem II	1:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
17.02.23	Heracles Almelo - Willem II	1:1
04.11.22	Willem II - Heracles Almelo	1:2
Dutch Eredivisie
07.05.22	Willem II - Heracles Almelo	2:0
02.10.21	Heracles Almelo - Willem II	3:2
10.04.21	Heracles Almelo - Willem II	4:0
20.09.20	Willem II - Heracles Almelo	4:0

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