Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: van de Graaf E. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Sportsnet+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
France	DAZN France
Indonesia	Vidio
Japan	U-NEXT
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	AZ Alkmaar		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.25	8	Watch
	1.39	5.5	6.75
	1.34	5.4	8.3
	1.36	5.87	8.25
	1.32	5.85	7.97	Watch
	1.3	5	7
	1.33	5.81	8.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.39)	5.53 ↑ (5.27)	7.82 ↑ (6.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
70.7%

Draw
17.2%

NAC Breda
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

18%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.8%

17.3%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

NAC Breda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 15. Chavez Garcia M. 8. Clasie J. (C) 6. Koopmeiners P. 17. Jensen I. 10. Mijnans S. 27. Daal R. 9. Parrott T.	99. Bielica D. (G) 25. Valerius C. 15. Mahmutovic E. 20. Jensen F. 22. Hillen R. 55. Ghalidi B. 16. Balard M. 8. Leemans C. (C) 14. Sowah K. 26. Reulen P. 9. Soumano M.
Substitutes
20. Boogaard K. 18. Ichihara R. 30. Kasius D. 45. Kovacs B. 2. Maikuma S. 35. Meerdink M. 24. Oufkir A. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 23. van Duijl B. 7. Weslley Patati 41. Zoet J. (G)	24. Ayew A. 30. Brouwers M. 7. Brym C. 21. Candelaria J. 44. Goos T. (G) 90. Holtby L. 4. Kemper B. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 32. Talvitie J.
Coaches
Echteld L.	Hoefkens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Mijnans S. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
12', 2 - 0, Chavez Garcia M. ⚽, Mijnans S. (A),
37', Parrott T. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
54', Sowah K. ↓, Candelaria J. ↑,
55', Reulen P. ↓, Brym C. ↑,
55', Mahmutovic E. ↓, Talvitie J. ↑,
57', Jensen I. ↓, Weslley Patati ↑,
57', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, Kasius D. ↑,
59', Hillen R. 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Soumano M. ⚽, Valerius C. (A),
68', Ghalidi B. ↓, Holtby L. ↑,
68', Leemans C. ↓, Ayew A. ↑,
70', Clasie J. ↓, Boogaard K. ↑,
70', Daal R. ↓, Oufkir A. ↑,
71', 2 - 2, Soumano M. ⚽, Jensen F. (A),
86', Meerdink M. 🟨,
89', 2 - 3, Talvitie J. ⚽, Valerius C. (A),
90', 3 - 3, Meerdink M. ⚽, Weslley Patati (A),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, AZ is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, AZ won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 26:15. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:8. (average 1.9:1).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

NAC Breda: 15.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
10.05.26	Feyenoord - AZ Alkmaar	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	2:2 ✺
23.04.26	Go Ahead Eagles - AZ Alkmaar	0:0 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	5:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	AZ Alkmaar - Shakhtar Donetsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTTWT
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
11.05.26	NAC Breda - Heerenveen	2:0 ✺
02.05.26	Utrecht - NAC Breda	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	NAC Breda - Ajax	0:2 ✺
12.04.26	Fortuna Sittard - NAC Breda	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
31.08.25	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	0:1
24.04.25	AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda	1:1
15.12.24	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	1:2
Dutch KNVB Beker
12.02.20	AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda	1:3
Dutch Eredivisie
08.02.19	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	0:3
12.08.18	AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda	5:0
17.02.18	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	1:3

Upcoming Matches