Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Goffertstadion (Nijmegen)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 5
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Slovenia	Sport TV3
Spain	GolStadium
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	NEC Nijmegen		Ajax

	1	X	2
	2.1	4.1	2.88	Watch
	2.15	3.9	3
	2.12	4.1	2.95
	2.16	4.07	3.08
	2.1	4.15	2.97	Watch
	2.1	3.8	2.9
	2.16	3.99	3.05	Watch
	2.1	4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.47)	4.01 ↑ (3.68)	2.97 ↑ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NEC Nijmegen
44.5%

Draw
23.6%

Ajax
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

25.4%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

25%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NEC Nijmegen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in NEC Nijmegen's performance.

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NEC Nijmegen than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NEC Nijmegen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	20.8%	45.8%

NEC Nijmegen - Ajax Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Nijmegen will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%). Ajax will win (votes: 11 - 45.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 25.9% – 65.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Ajax (2.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ajax (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Crettaz G. (G) 14. Dasa E. 3. Sandler P. 4. Kaplan A. 25. Ouaissa S. 6. Nejasmic D. 23. Sano K. 11. Onal B. 10. Chery T. (C) 30. Linssen B. 18. Ogawa K.	1. Jaros V. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 4. Itakura K. 15. Baas Y. 2. Rosa L. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 6. Regeer Y. 48. Steur S. 10. Gloukh O. 9. Dolberg K. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
22. Cillessen J. (G) 35. de Laat S. 24. Fonville D. 21. Gonzalez R. 31. Janse R. (G) 20. Lebreton N. 7. Misidjan V. 2. Pereira B. 71. Proper D. 9. Shiogai K. 32. van Crooij V. 15. Willems J.	43. Bounida R. 30. Bouwman A. 17. Edvardsen O. 46. Jetten L. 19. Konadu D. 24. Mokio J. 7. Moro R. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 52. Reverson P. (G) 8. Taylor K. 21. van den Boomen B. 5. Wijndal O.
Coaches
Schreuder D.	Grim F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 1 - 0, Linssen B. ⚽,
11', Linssen B. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Dolberg K. ⚽, Gaaei A. (A),
44', 1 - 2, Godts M. ⚽, Regeer Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Steur S. ↓, Taylor K. ↑,
46', 2 - 2, Ouaissa S. ⚽, Linssen B. (A),
59', Ouaissa S. 🟥,
63', Linssen B. ↓, Lebreton N. ↑,
64', Ogawa K. ↓, Fonville D. ↑,
72', Klaassen D. ↓, Bounida R. ↑,
75', Onal B. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
75', Chery T. ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
78', Bounida R. 🟨,
83', Gloukh O. ↓, Konadu D. ↑,
88', Godts M. 🟨,
90+2', Rosa L. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
90+3', Regeer Y. 🟨,
90+4', Crettaz G. 🟨,
90+5', Kaplan A. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nijmegen won 1.

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Ajax may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Nijmegen has had a series of away games.

Nijmegen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Nijmegen: El Kachati Y. (Injury) Entius F. (Knee Injury) Nuytinck B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Berghuis S. (Groin Injury) McConnell J. (Health problems) Sutalo J. (Health problems) Weghorst W. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Nijmegen: Cillessen J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Taylor K. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Nijmegen won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 19:49. (average 1.1:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Nijmegen won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:22. (average 0.6:2.8).

Last Results with these Odds

NEC Nijmegen - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 37.89%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NEC Nijmegen
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.12.25	Amsterdamsche FC - NEC Nijmegen	1:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
13.12.25	Telstar - NEC Nijmegen	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Volendam - NEC Nijmegen	2:3 ✺
29.11.25	NEC Nijmegen - Sparta Rotterdam	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Feyenoord - NEC Nijmegen	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WTWWW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch KNVB Beker
17.12.25	Excelsior Maassluis - Ajax	2:7 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
14.12.25	Ajax - Feyenoord	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Ajax	2:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
06.12.25	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	1:3 ✺
02.12.25	Ajax - Groningen	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
11.05.25	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	0:3
01.12.24	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	1:2
18.02.24	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	2:2
03.12.23	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	1:2
05.03.23	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:0
08.01.23	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	1:1
23.04.22	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	0:1

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