Match Info

KNVB Beker - Semi-finals

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Goffertstadion (Nijmegen)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN, Star Channel
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Onefootball


	NEC Nijmegen		PSV Eindhoven

	1	X	2
	4.2	4.33	1.61	Watch
	3.5	4	1.72
	4.15	4.45	1.65
	4.44	4.61	1.68
	2.53	3.62	2.55	Watch
	4	4	1.67
	4.28	4.4	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↑ (2.84)	4.2 ↑ (3.8)	1.79 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NEC Nijmegen
24.5%

Draw
22.6%

PSV Eindhoven
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

24.7%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

24.1%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NEC Nijmegen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that NEC Nijmegen's form might have worsened.

PSV Eindhoven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting PSV Eindhoven's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NEC Nijmegen than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for NEC Nijmegen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for PSV Eindhoven than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for PSV Eindhoven, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	0%	90.5%

NEC Nijmegen - PSV Eindhoven Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Nijmegen will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). PSV will win (votes: 19 - 90.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSV: 78% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): PSV Eindhoven will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Cillessen J. (G) 14. Dasa E. 3. Sandler P. 4. Kaplan A. 25. Ouaissa S. 23. Sano K. 6. Nejasmic D. 11. Onal B. 10. Chery T. (C) 20. Lebreton N. 30. Linssen B.	32. Kovar M. (G) 8. Dest S. 22. Schouten J. (C) 4. Obispo A. 17. Mauro Junior 10. Wanner P. 23. Veerman J. 27. Man D. 34. Saibari I. 5. Perisic I. 21. Boadu M.
Substitutes
9. Danilo Pereira 34. El Kachati Y. 24. Fonville D. 31. Janse R. (G) 7. Misidjan V. 17. Nuytinck B. 18. Ogawa K. 5. Ouwejan T. 2. Pereira B. 71. Proper D. 15. Willems J. 19. Willumsson W. T.	19. Bajraktarevic E. 11. Driouech C. 31. Fernandez N. 6. Flamingo R. 3. Gasiorowski Y. 9. Pepi R. 24. Schiks N. (G) 25. Sildillia K. 51. Smolenaars T. (G)
Coaches
Schreuder D.	Bosz P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
6', 1 - 0, Linssen B. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Saibari I. ⚽, Perisic I. (A),
20', 1 - 2, Man D. ⚽,
24', Dasa E. 🟨,
37', 2 - 2, Dasa E. ⚽, Sano K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Wanner P. 🟨,
61', 3 - 2, Onal B. ⚽, Lebreton N. (A),
64', Mauro Junior 🟨,
66', Boadu M. ↓, Pepi R. ↑,
66', Wanner P. ↓, Sildillia K. ↑,
69', Linssen B. 🟨,
75', Sandler P. ↓, Fonville D. ↑,
75', Linssen B. ↓, El Kachati Y. ↑,
75', Man D. ↓, Bajraktarevic E. ↑,
83', Mauro Junior ↓, Flamingo R. ↑,
87', Onal B. ↓, Nuytinck B. ↑,
87', Chery T. ↓, Willems J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nijmegen won 1.

In recent matches, Nijmegen has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

PSV is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

PSV may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, PSV is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Nijmegen: Entius F. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in PSV: Olij N. (Groin Injury) Plea A. (Knee Injury) Salah-Eddine A. (Inactive) Til G. (Inactive) van Bommel R. (Knee Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Nijmegen won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 22:56. (average 1.2:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Nijmegen won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:25. (average 1.4:2.8).

Outrights of Dutch KNVB Beker for now

PSV: 24.86% Nijmegen: 4.21%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NEC Nijmegen
Dutch Eredivisie
28.02.26	NEC Nijmegen - Fortuna Sittard	2:3 ✺
21.02.26	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
17.02.26	Sparta Rotterdam - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
11.02.26	NEC Nijmegen - Utrecht	1:3 ✺
07.02.26	NEC Nijmegen - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LTTLW
- PSV Eindhoven
Dutch Eredivisie
28.02.26	Heracles Almelo - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	PSV Eindhoven - Heerenveen	3:1 ✺
13.02.26	Volendam - PSV Eindhoven	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Groningen - PSV Eindhoven	1:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
04.02.26	PSV Eindhoven - Heerenveen	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
13.09.25	NEC Nijmegen - PSV Eindhoven	3:5
01.02.25	NEC Nijmegen - PSV Eindhoven	3:3
14.09.24	PSV Eindhoven - NEC Nijmegen	2:0
30.03.24	NEC Nijmegen - PSV Eindhoven	3:1
16.09.23	PSV Eindhoven - NEC Nijmegen	4:0
01.04.23	NEC Nijmegen - PSV Eindhoven	2:4
30.10.22	PSV Eindhoven - NEC Nijmegen	3:0

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