Match Info

Date: 21 September 2020, Monday


	Nacional Asuncion		River Plate Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.15
	3.2	3.1	2.15
	3.3	3	2.05
	3.57	3.17	2.28
	3.4	2.9	2.25
	3.28	3.16	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.28 ↑ (2.24)	3.1 ↓ (3.22)	2.19 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
28.1%

Draw
29.7%

River Plate Montevideo
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

28.3%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

20.3%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional Asuncion's form might have worsened.

River Plate Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting River Plate Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+28.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for River Plate Montevideo than the current prediction. (-20.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for River Plate Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	11.2%	83.7%

Nacional Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: 80 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 5%). River Plate will win (votes: 67 - 83.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 11.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for River Plate: 75.7% – 91.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 7 and 6).

Nacional Asuncion is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

River Plate has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Nacional Asuncion could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

River Plate will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Nacional Asuncion won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional Asuncion won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
15.09.20	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
05.09.20	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	4:0 ✺
29.08.20	Nacional Asuncion - 12 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
25.08.20	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
21.08.20	Nacional Asuncion - San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLW
- River Plate Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.20	Montevideo City Torque - River Plate Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.09.20	São Paulo - River Plate Montevideo	2:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.09.20	Rentistas - River Plate Montevideo	2:1 ✺
13.09.20	River Plate Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.09.20	River Plate Montevideo - Olimpia Asuncion	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
21.07.20	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
25.10.19	Nacional Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	1:1
03.08.19	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Asuncion	0:1
18.05.19	Nacional Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	0:0
16.03.19	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Asuncion	1:1
17.12.16	Nacional Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	2:0
17.09.16	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Asuncion	2:3

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