Match Info

Date: 2 August 2022, Tuesday

Location: Gran Parque Central (Montevideo)

Referee: Aquino E. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Portugal	Sport TV
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Nacional Montevideo		Atlético Goianiense

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.6	5.5
	1.7	3.4	5.25
	1.71	3.4	4.9
	1.68	3.45	5
	1.74	3.58	5.52
	1.7	3.25	5	Watch
	1.71	3.55	5.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2.24)	3.46 ↑ (3.09)	5.2 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Montevideo
55%

Draw
27%

Atlético Goianiense
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

30.1%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

30.1%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Montevideo's performance.

Atlético Goianiense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Goianiense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Goianiense than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Goianiense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.8%	14.6%	14.6%

Nacional Montevideo - Atlético Goianiense Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 34 - 70.8%). Atlético GO will win (votes: 7 - 14.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 14.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 57.9% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Nacional is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atlético GO is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Nacional is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Montevideo
Club Friendly
31.07.22	Nacional Montevideo - Santa Clara	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.07.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	2:1 ✺
27.07.22	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
24.07.22	Nacional Montevideo - Boston River	2:0 ✺
21.07.22	Nacional Montevideo - Cerrito	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWWW
- Atlético Goianiense
Brazilian Serie A
30.07.22	Flamengo - Atlético Goianiense	4:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
27.07.22	Atlético Goianiense - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.07.22	Atlético Goianiense - América Mineiro	0:1 ✺
20.07.22	Athletico Paranaense - Atlético Goianiense	4:1 ✺
17.07.22	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL

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