Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/32-finals

Date: 16 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Toyama Stadium (Toyama)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Kataller Toyama		Nagoya Grampus

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.1	Watch
	3.6	3.1	1.93
	3.5	3.2	2.12	Watch
	3.56	3.16	2.13
	3.54	3.26	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3	2
	3.56	3.18	2.15	Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.55 ↑ (2.94)	3.16 ↓ (3.18)	2.08 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kataller Toyama
26.1%

Draw
29.3%

Nagoya Grampus
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

29.5%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.7%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kataller Toyama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kataller Toyama's form might have worsened.

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nagoya Grampus's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kataller Toyama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nagoya Grampus, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Kataller Toyama - Nagoya Grampus Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 5 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tagawa T. (G) 28. Fuseya S. 41. Sakai S. 4. Kamiyama K. 13. Fukazawa S. 34. Takenaka G. 48. Ueda K. 8. Matsuoka D. 17. Inoue N. 27. Yoshihira T. 58. Take H.	35. Pisano A. (G) 20. Mikuni K. 3. Sato Y. 4. Miya D. 44. Soichiro M. 8. Shiihashi K. 17. Uchida T. 55. Tokumoto S. 14. Morishima T. 33. Kikuchi T. 9. Asano Y.
Substitutes
39. Furukawa M. 25. Kameda A. 32. Mizoguchi S. 26. Nabeta A. 21. Okubo T. (G) 22. Shiina N. 16. Sueki H. 14. Ura J. 2. Yoshida A.	70. Hara T. 7. Izumi R. 26. Kato G. 10. Mateus 27. Nakayama K. 2. Nogami Y. 30. Sugiura S. 16. Takeda Y. (G) 66. Yamanaka R.
Coaches
Otagiri M.	Hasegawa K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Ueda K. ↓, Sueki H. ↑,
28', Kamiyama K. 🟨,
45+5', Morishima T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Mori S. ↓, Hara T. ↑,
65', Tokumoto S. ↓, Sugiura S. ↑,
74', Inoue N. ↓, Ura J. ↑,
74', Fukazawa S. ↓, Yoshida A. ↑,
76', Asano Y. ↓, Mateus ↑,
84', Morishima T. ↓, Izumi R. ↑,
88', Ura J. 🟨,
90', Takenaka G. ↓, Shiina N. ↑,
90', Yoshihira T. ↓, Kameda A. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
91', Shiihashi K. ↓, Kato G. ↑,
91', Matsuoka D. ↓, Furukawa M. ↑,
99', 1 - 0, Take H. ⚽, Fuseya S. (A),
101', 1 - 1, Mateus ⚽, Izumi R. (A),
101', Uchida T. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
117', Tagawa T. 🟨,
Penalties (6 - 5)
1, Take H. (Pen),
1, Yamanaka R. (Pen),
2, Fuseya S. (Pen),
2, Mateus (Pen),
3, Sueki H. (Pen),
3, Izumi R. (Pen),
4, Ura J. (Pen),
4, Miya D. (Pen),
5, Kameda A. (Pen),
5, Kikuchi T. (Pen),
6, Tagawa T. (Pen),
6, Hara T. (Pen),
7, Yoshida A. (Pen),
7, Sato Y. (Pen),

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Nagoya could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nagoya will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Nagoya Grampus - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.63%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kataller Toyama
Japan J2 League
13.04.25	Kataller Toyama - Renofa Yamaguchi	2:2 ✺
06.04.25	Roasso Kumamoto - Kataller Toyama	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Kataller Toyama - Vegalta Sendai	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Kataller Toyama - JEF United Chiba	4:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
23.03.25	Sagan Tosu - Kataller Toyama	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTLWL
- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
12.04.25	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus	2:1 ✺
02.04.25	Nagoya Grampus - Yokohama F. Marinos	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Nagoya Grampus - Yokohama FC	2:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Nagoya Grampus	0:3 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LLWWW

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