Match Info

J1 League - Round 3

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Toyota City)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagoya Grampus		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.4	4	Watch
	1.88	3.4	3.9	Watch
	1.96	3.56	4.27
	1.93	3.44	4.11	Watch
	1.85	3.25	3.9
	1.92	3.35	4.04	Watch
	1.85	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.87)	3.43 ↓ (3.58)	4.03 ↓ (4.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagoya Grampus
49.5%

Draw
27.3%

V-Varen Nagasaki
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

26.4%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Nagoya Grampus - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schmidt D. (G) 70. Hara T. 13. Fujii H. 55. Tokumoto S. 27. Nakayama K. 15. Inagaki S. 31. Takamine T. 19. Koda H. 25. Marcus Vinicius 22. Kimura Y. 11. Yamagishi Y.	1. Goto M. (G) 50. Shindo R. 48. Teruyama H. 6. Egawa Y. 22. Onaga H. 5. Yamaguchi H. 24. Yamada R. 23. Yoneda S. 10. Matheus Jesus 41. Hasegawa M. 9. Thiago
Substitutes
9. Asano Y. 20. Mikuni K. 44. Mori S. 18. Nagai K. 2. Nogami Y. 41. Ono M. 35. Pisano A. (G) 17. Uchida T. 66. Yamanaka R.	11. Campbell N. 21. Diego Pituca 13. Hatano G. (G) 8. Iwasaki Y. 33. Kasayanagi T. 25. Kushibiki K. 34. Matsumoto T. 19. Sawada T. 18. Yamasaki R.
Coaches
Petrovic M.	Takagi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Kimura Y. 🟨,
26', Hasegawa M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Koda H. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
58', 0 - 1, Thiago ⚽, Matheus Jesus (A),
67', Tokumoto S. ↓, Yamanaka R. ↑,
68', Thiago ↓, Campbell N. ↑,
76', Yamada R. ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
78', 0 - 2, Campbell N. ⚽, Yoneda S. (A),
80', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Mori S. ↑,
80', Nakayama K. ↓, Asano Y. ↑,
80', Hara T. ↓, Mikuni K. ↑,
84', Egawa Y. ↓, Kushibiki K. ↑,
84', Hasegawa M. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Asano Y. ⚽,
90+6', 1 - 3, Campbell N. ⚽, Matheus Jesus (A),

Preview

Nagoya may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nagoya is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Nagoya: Koyamatsu T. (Injury) Mateus (Injury) Morishima T. (Injury) Uchida T. (Injury)

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Dudu Giusti (Injury)

There are questionable in Nagoya: Izumi R. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Nagoya Grampus: 0.78% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.6%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
15.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Nagoya Grampus	0:1 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Nagoya Grampus - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Machida Zelvia - Nagoya Grampus	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Nagoya Grampus	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWLL
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
13.02.26	Vissel Kobe - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:3 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.11.25	Tokushima Vortis - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Ehime - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
15.09.18	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:4
12.05.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	3:0
Japan J2 League
21.10.17	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	1:1
25.06.17	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0

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