Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bastia		Dunkerque

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.2	2.9	Watch
	2.37	3.2	2.95
	2.35	3.1	2.98
	2.47	3.25	3.16
	3.14	2.08	3.71	Watch
	2.37	3.22	2.98	Watch
	2.36	3.2	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (1.84)	3.04 ↓ (3.5)	3.1 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bastia
38.1%

Draw
31.3%

Dunkerque
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

26.4%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

25.2%

22.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bastia's form might have worsened.

Dunkerque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dunkerque's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+14.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bastia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dunkerque, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	38.5%	23.1%

Bastia - Dunkerque Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Dunkerque will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bastia: 12% – 65%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Dunkerque (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bastia (1.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Dunkerque (1.58) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 2 - 25%). Dunkerque (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Placide J. (G) 15. Bohnert F. 6. Guidi D. (C) 3. Guevara J. 4. Roncaglia A. 13. Ducrocq T. 5. Ariss Z. 9. Tomi F. 66. Janneh J. 10. Boutrah A. 11. Ble M.	60. Niflore M. (G) 2. Georgen A. 26. Sangante O. (C) 23. Sasso V. 21. Kondo G. 6. Diong P. 10. Essimi M. 20. Bardeli E. 8. Sekongo A. 77. Zossou A. 9. Robinet T.
Substitutes
25. Aiki A. 16. Contena S. (G) 34. Djedje D. 8. Karamoko I. 24. Meynadier T. 7. Vincent C. 18. Zaouai A.	30. Abner F. 11. Daho A. 24. Dziki Loussilaho L. 16. Eguaras I. 19. Kante A. 7. Sylvestre E. 33. Tou S. K. (G)
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Sanchez A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Sekongo A. 🟨,
42', Robinet T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Guidi D. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
55', Ariss Z. 🟨,
65', Tomi F. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,
65', Ble M. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
68', Robinet T. 🟨,
72', Zossou A. ↓, Abner F. ↑,
72', Sekongo A. ↓, Eguaras I. ↑,
72', Essimi M. ↓, Daho A. ↑,
77', Janneh J. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
83', Bardeli E. ↓, Sylvestre E. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 3.

Recent form of Bastia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Dunkerque's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Bastia has had a series of away games.

Bastia might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Injury) Bathily Y. (Injury) Etoga L. (Injury) Olmeta L. (International duty) Parravicini N. (Injury) Sebas J. (Red Card) Vincent C. (Injury)

There will not play in Dunkerque: Lavin M. (Injury) Linguet A. (Inactive) Massock T. (Inactive) Yassine G. (International duty)

There are questionable in Dunkerque: Yassine G. (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
26.09.25	Grenoble - Bastia	0:0 ✺
23.09.25	Bastia - Rodez	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0 ✺
16.09.25	Boulogne - Bastia	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Amiens - Bastia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLLT
- USL Dunkerque
French Ligue 2
27.09.25	Dunkerque - Amiens	6:2 ✺
23.09.25	Guingamp - Dunkerque	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Dunkerque - Le Mans	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Grenoble - Dunkerque	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Dunkerque - Troyes	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
28.03.25	Bastia - Dunkerque	2:0
24.09.24	Dunkerque - Bastia	2:1
06.04.24	Bastia - Dunkerque	1:1
05.12.23	Dunkerque - Bastia	0:5
15.03.22	Bastia - Dunkerque	1:0
02.10.21	Dunkerque - Bastia	2:0

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