Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 32

Date: 23 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video


	Nantes		Troyes

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6	Watch
	1.51	4.33	6.25
	1.54	4.25	6
	1.5	4.33	6
	1.53	4.53	6.63
	1.5	4.2	6.5
	1.5	4.45	6.25	Watch
	1.52	4.6	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.68)	4.38 ↑ (3.86)	6.25 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantes
63%

Draw
21.8%

Troyes
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

24.5%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

24.2%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nantes's performance.

Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nantes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.9%	5.7%	9.4%

Nantes - Troyes Predictions

Users Predictions: Nantes will win (45 of 53 users predict this - 84.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.27% – 94.55%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Nantes has the most likely position - 14 (22.24%), project points - 40, currently - 31, a small chance of relegated (15%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Troyes has the most likely position - 18 (51.63%), project points - 26, currently - 21, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 47, small importance 25, match rating 36. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nantes won 3.

Recent matches Nantes is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Troyes has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Nantes is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Nantes won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Nantes won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
16.04.23	Auxerre - Nantes	2:1 ✺
09.04.23	Nantes - Monaco	2:2 ✺
Coupe De France
05.04.23	Nantes - Lyon	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
02.04.23	Nantes - Reims	0:3 ✺
17.03.23	Lyon - Nantes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LTWLT
- Troyes AC
French Ligue 1
16.04.23	Olympique Marseille - Troyes	3:1 ✺
09.04.23	Troyes - Clermont	0:2 ✺
01.04.23	Auxerre - Troyes	1:0 ✺
19.03.23	Troyes - Brest	2:2 ✺
12.03.23	Lorient - Troyes	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
28.12.22	Troyes - Nantes	0:0
12.03.22	Troyes - Nantes	1:0
03.10.21	Nantes - Troyes	2:0
10.03.18	Nantes - Troyes	1:0
19.08.17	Troyes - Nantes	0:1
30.01.16	Troyes - Nantes	0:1
17.10.15	Nantes - Troyes	3:0

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