Match Info

FRANCE: Coupe de France - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 February 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport App
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	05:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Canada	13:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
China	02:00	ZhiBo8
Cyprus	20:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech Republic	19:00	Nova Sport 5
France	19:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free
Georgia	22:00	Silk Sport 1
Hungary	19:00	Spiler1 TV
Japan	03:00	DAZN Japan
Lithuania	20:00	Sport 1
Mexico	12:00	TVC Deportes 2
Norway	19:00	VG+
Russia	21:00	TV Start
Slovakia	19:00	Voyo
Ukraine	20:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United Kingdom	18:00	beIN Sports MENA English 2
Usa	13:00	Fox Soccer Plus


	Troyes		Brest

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.4
	2.92	3.2	2.52	Watch
	2.96	3.3	2.54
	2.92	3.31	2.38	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.45
	2.9	3.25	2.4	Watch
	2.98	3.2	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (3.6)	3.22 ↓ (3.5)	2.46 ↑ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Coupe De France with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Soccer Plus

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Current Win Probability

Troyes
32.8%

Draw
29.1%

Brest
38.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.3%

26%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

25.4%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Troyes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Troyes's performance.

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brest might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Troyes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brest could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	10%	75%

Troyes - Brest Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Troyes will win (votes: 3 - 15%). Brest will win (votes: 15 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brest: 56% – 94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lemaitre N. (G) 2. Mendes H. 6. Monfray A. 4. Diaz Jr. M. 3. Boura I. 8. Diop M. 5. Kante A. (C) 10. M'Changama Y. 11. Said R. 9. Irie C. 7. Adeline M.	1. Coudert G. (G) 2. Zogbe L. 5. Le Cardinal J. 4. Coulibaly S. 3. Bourgault J. 7. Salah I. 8. Magnetti H. (C) 6. Fernandes E. 10. Faivre R. 11. Balde M. 9. Doumbia K.
Substitutes
18. Assoumou J. 13. Balde T. 20. Ba P. I. 12. Boucher Z. (G) 15. Chavalerin X. 19. de Preville N. 16. Detourbet M. 14. Gozzi P. 17. Phliponeau A.	19. Ajorque L. 16. Bizot M. (G) 12. Chardonnet B. 15. Del Castillo R. 14. Haidara M. 13. Lala K. 20. Lees-Melou P. 18. Pereira Lage M. 17. Sima A.
Coaches
Dumont S.	Roy E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
47', Bourgault J. 🟨,
49', 0 - 1, Salah I. ⚽, Faivre R. (A),
55', 1 - 1, Magnetti H. (Own goal),
69', Balde M. ↓, Ajorque L. ↑,
69', Doumbia K. ↓, Pereira Lage M. ↑,
69', Fernandes E. ↓, Lees-Melou P. ↑,
72', Adeline M. ↓, de Preville N. ↑,
78', Bourgault J. ↓, Haidara M. ↑,
78', Said R. ↓, Assoumou J. ↑,
80', Faivre R. ↓, Sima A. ↑,
85', Boura I. ↓, Gozzi P. ↑,
86', M'Changama Y. ↓, Chavalerin X. ↑,
89', Coulibaly S. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Sima A. ⚽, Pereira Lage M. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Troyes won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Troyes could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Brest will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Troyes won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 15:23 (average 1.1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Troyes won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8:8 (average 1.1:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Troyes - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 25.29%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Troyes AC
French Ligue 2
01.02.25	Troyes - Caen	3:0 ✺
24.01.25	Laval - Troyes	1:0 ✺
20.01.25	Troyes - Annecy	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
15.01.25	Troyes - Rennes	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 2
10.01.25	Rodez - Troyes	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLLWL
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
01.02.25	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	2:5 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Brest - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
26.01.25	Le Havre - Brest	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.01.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Brest	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.01.25	Rennes - Brest	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
19.03.23	Troyes - Brest	2:2
13.11.22	Brest - Troyes	2:1
13.02.22	Brest - Troyes	5:1
22.12.21	Troyes - Brest	1:1
French Ligue 2
12.01.19	Brest - Troyes	1:1
03.08.18	Troyes - Brest	1:2
29.04.17	Troyes - Brest	1:0

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