Match Info

Date: 4 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore
France	beIN Sports Max
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Arena 4, Sport 2
Portugal	Eleven Sports
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Ajax		Napoli

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.75	2.9
	2.25	3.7	2.9
	2.3	3.75	3.1
	2.32	3.7	2.85
	2.37	3.82	2.91
	2.25	3.6	3
	2.33	3.96	3.13
	2.34	3.75	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.16)	3.75 ↓ (3.77)	2.96 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 0.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
41.8%

Draw
25.7%

Napoli
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

25.3%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

26.4%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Ajax - Napoli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Ajax has currently - 3, has a chance of 1st (27%), has a chance of 2nd (30%), has a chance of 3rd (39%), has a good chance of round of 16 (57%), has a chance of qtrs (33%), has a chance of semis (18%), has a small chance of final (8%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Napoli has currently - 6, has a chance of 1st (40%), has a chance of 2nd (30%), has a chance of 3rd (29%), has a good chance of round of 16 (70%), has a chance of qtrs (32%), has a small chance of semis (13%), has a very small chance of final (5%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has big quality 82, big importance 87, big match rating 84. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Ajax is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Napoli is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Ajax will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Ajax: Kaplan A. (Knee Injury) Sanchez J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Osimhen V. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Ihattaren M. (Lacking Match Fitness)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
01.10.22	Ajax - Go Ahead Eagles	1:1 ✺
18.09.22	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.09.22	Liverpool - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.09.22	Ajax - Heerenveen	5:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.09.22	Ajax - Glasgow Rangers	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLLWW
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
01.10.22	Napoli - Torino	3:1 ✺
18.09.22	Milan - Napoli	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.09.22	Glasgow Rangers - Napoli	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
10.09.22	Napoli - Spezia	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.09.22	Napoli - Liverpool	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 WWWWW

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