Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 24 October 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Italy	Canale 5, Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Portugal	Eleven Sports 3
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Live
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Union Berlin		Napoli

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.15
	3.4	3.4	2.1
	3.4	3.5	2.18	Watch
	3.47	3.45	2.23
	3.48	3.43	2.23
	3.6	3.5	2
	3.76	3.62	1.99
	3.5	3.5	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↓ (3.62)	3.48 ↓ (3.61)	2.13 ↑ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
27.4%

Draw
27.6%

Napoli
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.2%

26.3%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

26.1%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.9%	3.2%	92.9%

Union Berlin - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (143 of 154 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.79% – 96.93%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 31. Knoche R. 4. Leite D. 5. Doekhi D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 19. Haberer J. 8. Khedira R. 7. Aaronson B. 6. Gosens R. 27. Becker S. 11. Fofana D. D.	1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 3. Natan 6. Rui M. 24. Cajuste J. 68. Lobotka S. 20. Zielinski P. 21. Politano M. 81. Raspadori G. 77. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
17. Behrens K. 23. Bonucci L. 38. Dehl L. 3. Jaeckel P. 33. Kral A. 20. Laidouni A. 37. Schwolow A. (G) 39. Stein Y. (G) 29. Tousart L. 10. Volland K.	14. Contini N. (G) 50. D'Avino L. 7. Elmas E. 70. Gaetano G. 95. Gollini P. (G) 29. Lindstrom J. 17. Olivera M. 55. Ostigard L. 18. Simeone G. 59. Zanoli A. 23. Zerbin A.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Garcia R.

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Olympiastadion.

Union Berlin has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Napoli is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Napoli is a favorite.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Dehl L. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Juranovic J. (Muscle Injury) Schafer A. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) Osimhen V. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Roussillon J. (Knock) Schwolow A. (Illness)

There are questionable in Napoli: Elmas E. (Muscle Injury) Olivera M. (Muscle Injury)

Our prediction for today's Napoli to win the game is with odds 1.95.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
21.10.23	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	0:3 ✺
07.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
03.10.23	Union Berlin - Braga	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.09.23	Heidenheim - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
23.09.23	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
21.10.23	Verona - Napoli	1:3 ✺
08.10.23	Napoli - Fiorentina	1:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
03.10.23	Napoli - Real Madrid	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
30.09.23	Lecce - Napoli	0:4 ✺
27.09.23	Napoli - Udinese	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLWW

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