Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 8

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: Weserstadion (Bremen)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Werder Bremen		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.9	Watch
	2.32	3.55	2.98	Watch
	2.35	3.59	3.12
	1.17	5.28	55.15	Watch
				Watch
	2.4	3.62	3.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.03)	3.93 ↑ (3.68)	13.45 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Werder Bremen
59.2%

Draw
31.6%

Union Berlin
9.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

25.9%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

25.7%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Werder Bremen's performance.

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Union Berlin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Werder Bremen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+17.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Union Berlin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.3%	27.3%	20.5%

Werder Bremen - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Werder will win (votes: 23 - 52.3%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 9 - 20.5%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Werder: 37.5% – 67.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Union Berlin (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Werder (1.72) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.25 - Union Berlin (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Werder (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Union Berlin (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Backhaus M. (G) 3. Sugawara Y. 5. Pieper A. 31. Coulibaly K. 32. Friedl M. (C) 14. Lynen S. 6. Stage J. 17. Grull M. 20. Schmid R. 7. Mbangula S. 44. Boniface V.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 28. Trimmel C. (C) 8. Khedira R. 6. Kemlein A. 39. Kohn D. 7. Burke O. 10. Ansah I. 23. Ilic A.
Substitutes
28. Alvero S. 10. Bittencourt L. 24. Covic P. 13. Hein K. (G) 22. Malatini J. 11. Njinmah J. 18. Puertas C. 4. Stark N. 9. Topp K.	30. Bogdanov D. 19. Haberer J. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 27. Ljubicic M. 34. Nsoki S. 31. Raab M. (G) 15. Rothe T. 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T.
Coaches
Steffen H.	Baumgart S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Coulibaly K. 🟨,
29', Ilic A. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Kemlein A. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
61', Kohn D. ↓, Rothe T. ↑,
70', Grull M. 🟨,
72', 1 - 0, Grull M. ⚽, Sugawara Y. (A),
79', Trimmel C. ↓, Haberer J. ↑,
79', Leite D. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
85', Boniface V. ↓, Topp K. ↑,
85', Mbangula S. ↓, Puertas C. ↑,
90', Grull M. ↓, Stark N. ↑,
90', Sugawara Y. ↓, Malatini J. ↑,
90+1', Topp K. 🟨,
90+2', Pieper A. 🟨,
90+3', Schmid R. ↓, Njinmah J. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Werder won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Werder will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Werder: Agu F. (Ankle Injury) Deman O. (Ankle Injury) Schmidt I. (Foot Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Markgraf A. (Leg Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Burcu L. (Ankle Injury) Juranovic J. (Lacking Match Fitness) Schafer A. (Knock)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Werder won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Werder won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Union Berlin - the odds 3.53 are the expected chance of winning is 27.01%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Heidenheim - Werder Bremen	2:2 ✺
04.10.25	Werder Bremen - St. Pauli	1:0 ✺
26.09.25	Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen	4:0 ✺
20.09.25	Werder Bremen - Freiburg	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Werder Bremen	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TWLLW
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
17.10.25	Union Berlin - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
28.09.25	Union Berlin - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Union Berlin	3:4 ✺
13.09.25	Union Berlin - Hoffenheim	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
03.05.25	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	2:2
21.12.24	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	4:1
16.03.24	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	2:1
28.10.23	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	2:0
27.05.23	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	1:0
25.01.23	Werder Bremen - Union Berlin	1:2
24.04.21	Union Berlin - Werder Bremen	3:1

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