Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart)

Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stuttgart		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.6	4	5.5	Watch
	1.62	4.15	5.4	Watch
	1.58	4.19	5.71	Watch
	1.6	3.9	5	Watch
	1.64	4.1	5.64	Watch
	1.61	4	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.73)	4.06 ↑ (3.72)	5.46 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
59.1%

Draw
23.4%

Union Berlin
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

25.6%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

25.2%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	6.5%	7.8%

Stuttgart - Union Berlin Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 60%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1 - Stuttgart (1.98) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Stuttgart (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stuttgart will win (65 of 75 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.98% – 94.36%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuttgart will win (22 of 25 users predict this - 88%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 28 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 24 - 85.7%). Union Berlin (votes: 3 - 10.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nubel A. (G) 4. Vagnoman J. 3. Hendriks R. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 28. Nartey N. 6. Stiller A. 16. Karazor A. (C) 18. Leweling J. 26. Undav D. 10. Fuhrich C.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 19. Haberer J. 8. Khedira R. (C) 13. Schafer A. 18. Juranovic J. 9. Burcu L. 6. Kemlein A. 23. Ilic A.
Substitutes
2. Al Dakhil A. 30. Andres C. 22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 9. Demirovic E. 29. Jeltsch F. 25. Jeremy Arevalo 15. Stenzel P.	10. Ansah I. 7. Burke O. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 33. Kral A. 27. Ljubicic M. 34. Nsoki S. 17. Preu D. 31. Raab M. (G) 28. Trimmel C.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Baumgart S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Burcu L. 🟨,
41', Vagnoman J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 1 - 0, Fuhrich C. ⚽, Hendriks R. (A),
69', Burcu L. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
69', Juranovic J. ↓, Nsoki S. ↑,
75', Schafer A. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
75', Nartey N. ↓, Demirovic E. ↑,
76', Fuhrich C. ↓, Jeltsch F. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Jeong Woo-Yeong ⚽, Nsoki S. (A),
90', Stiller A. ↓, Andres C. ↑,
90', Hendriks R. ↓, Assignon L. ↑,
90', Vagnoman J. ↓, Jeremy Arevalo ↑,
90+2', Ilic A. ↓, Burke O. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 3.

Stuttgart is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Union Berlin is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Stuttgart may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Stuttgart is the team to beat.

There will not play in Stuttgart: Al Dakhil A. (Illness) El Khannouss B. (International duty) Jaquez L. (Thigh Injury) Tomas T. (Muscle Injury) Zagadou D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Knock) Kohn D. (Red Card) Rothe T. (Injury) Skarke T. (Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Stuttgart will win today's game, with odds of 1.69.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 1.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Stuttgart won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.8:1.1).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6:9	-3	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
13.01.26	Stuttgart - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:2 ✺
10.01.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Stuttgart	1:4 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Stuttgart - Luzern	3:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Stuttgart - Hoffenheim	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Werder Bremen - Stuttgart	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WWWTW
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
15.01.26	Augsburg - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Union Berlin	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Köln - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
23.08.25	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	2:1
19.04.25	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	4:4
06.12.24	Stuttgart - Union Berlin	3:2
08.03.24	Stuttgart - Union Berlin	2:0
German DFB Pokal
31.10.23	Stuttgart - Union Berlin	1:0
German Bundesliga
21.10.23	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	0:3
01.04.23	Union Berlin - Stuttgart	3:0

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