Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/64-finals

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday


	Navalcarnero		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.05	2.25	Watch
	3.35	2.92	2.22
	3.27	3.08	2.28	Watch
	3.35	3.1	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	3.04 ↓ (3.2)	2.23 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Navalcarnero
27.9%

Draw
30.5%

Mérida AD
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

28.3%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Mérida AD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Navalcarnero - Mérida AD Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Mérida AD will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Mérida AD (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Navalcarnero (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Navalcarnero (votes: 1 - 25%). Mérida AD (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Calado A. (G) 4. Martinez M. G. 6. de Souza R. (C) 5. Espinosa D. 7. Rober 22. Villar J. 15. Cruz J. 14. Bueno J. 11. Jimenez M. 24. Altube Suarez A. 21. Perera I.	13. Cacharron P. (G) 20. Jacobo R. 5. Dominguez J. 4. Pareja L. 22. Rivas M. 21. Beneit R. (C) 8. Solar M. 23. Verges E. 12. Gomes R. 9. Garcia A. 24. Pereira R.
Substitutes
34. Asangono N. 19. Aunon A. 12. Chahid W. 27. Corceovei D. 23. Dias J. 35. Javi Diz 3. Juanmi 30. Moraga M. 10. Peque 8. Quivira I. 13. Simon D. (G)	11. Areso J. 16. Capitas M. 7. Chiqui 1. Csenterics A. (G) 18. Dibrani B. 10. Doncel C. 27. Garcia S. 26. Gil A. (G) 17. Herranz Corral V. 3. Lancho J. 15. Martinez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 1 - 0, Perera I. ⚽, Altube Suarez A. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Garcia A. ⚽, Rivas M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Martinez M. G. ↓, Aunon A. ↑,
55', 2 - 1, Altube Suarez A. ⚽, Aunon A. (A),
58', Altube Suarez A. ↓, Corceovei D. ↑,
58', Rober ↓, Juanmi ↑,
65', Rivas M. ↓, Dibrani B. ↑,
65', Beneit R. ↓, Capitas M. ↑,
69', Garcia A. ↓, Chiqui ↑,
71', Solar M. 🟨,
78', Jimenez M. ↓, Dias J. ↑,
79', Perera I. ↓, Peque ↑,
84', Solar M. ↓, Doncel C. ↑,
84', Jacobo R. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
90+1', Corceovei D. 🟨,
90+1', Areso J. 🟨,
90+4', Dominguez J. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Navalcarnero may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mérida AD might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Navalcarnero won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Navalcarnero won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
26.10.25	Navalcarnero - Las Palmas B	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Conquense - Navalcarnero	1:1 ✺
12.10.25	Navalcarnero - Orihuela	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Elche Ilicitano - Navalcarnero	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Navalcarnero - Quintanar del Rey	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTTTW
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.10.25	Mérida AD - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Mérida AD - Arenteiro	3:1 ✺
11.10.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Mérida AD	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Mérida AD - Arenas Club de Getxo	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Zamora - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
02.05.21	Navalcarnero - Mérida AD	2:0
11.04.21	Mérida AD - Navalcarnero	3:0

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