Match Info

SPAIN: Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 33

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday


	Navalcarnero		Ursaria

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.8	3.1
	2.25	2.85	3.1
	2.35	3	3.1
	2.41	2.88	3.24
	2.41	2.88	3.24
	2.31	3.03	3.15
	2.31	2.85	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (1.94)	2.9 ↓ (2.93)	3.15 ↓ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Navalcarnero
39.3%

Draw
31.6%

Ursaria
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

31.2%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

29.7%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Navalcarnero's form might have worsened.

Ursaria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ursaria's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Navalcarnero, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ursaria than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ursaria, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Navalcarnero - Ursaria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Perez F. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
82', 1 - 1, Gutierrez A. (Pen),
84', 2 - 1, Rivas M. ⚽,
90+4', Lopez A. 🟥,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 in the zone Segunda RFEF ~ Play Out and 12).

Navalcarnero is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Ursaria is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Navalcarnero will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Navalcarnero won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.04.24	UD San Fernando - Navalcarnero	1:2 ✺
14.04.24	Navalcarnero - CD Guadalajara	3:1 ✺
07.04.24	Unión Adarve - Navalcarnero	1:1 ✺
31.03.24	Navalcarnero - San Sebastian Reyes	1:1 ✺
24.03.24	Mensajero - Navalcarnero	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 WWTTW
- CDE Ursaria
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
21.04.24	Ursaria - Numancia	0:1 ✺
14.04.24	Illescas - Ursaria	1:2 ✺
07.04.24	Ursaria - Atlético Paso	0:1 ✺
31.03.24	Llerenense - Ursaria	0:2 ✺
24.03.24	Ursaria - Montijo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
17.12.23	Ursaria - Navalcarnero	1:0

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