Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)

Referee: Quintero M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Necaxa		Juárez

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.5	3.7	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.25
	1.98	3.35	3.7
	2.06	3.51	3.85
	3.55	3.68	1.96	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.1
	2.06	3.4	3.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.07)	3.46 ↓ (3.56)	3.3 ↓ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Necaxa
42.9%

Draw
27.9%

Juárez
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

26.3%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

27%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Juárez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Necaxa - Juárez Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Necaxa will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Juárez will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Juárez (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Juárez (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Unsain E. (G) 3. Oliveros A. 5. Jacob T. 4. Pena A. (C) 24. Rossano F. 14. De Buen D. 29. Rodriguez I. 7. Rosero K. 8. Palavecino A. 15. Perez P. 9. Badaloni T.	1. Jurado S. (C) 3. Mosquera M. 26. Manriquez J. 4. Mayorga A. 5. Garcia D. 11. Puma 18. Martinez Yepez H. E. 13. Fulgencio R. 8. Guilherme Castilho 17. Pizarro R. 19. Estupinan O.
Substitutes
13. Andrade A. 16. Calderon C. 17. Cortez R. 19. Gomez D. 6. Jesus Alcantar 12. Jimenez L. (G) 198. Lomeli B. 2. Martinez E. 21. Rojas J. 11. Sanchez R.	24. Diaz B. (G) 208. Larios I. 237. Lopez E. 2. Murillo J. 14. Ochoa D. 21. Ricardinho 183. Silva L. 200. Sosa C. 10. Villalpando D. 29. Zaldivar A.
Coaches
Gago F.	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Estupinan O. ⚽, Puma (A),
13', Puma 🟨,
15', Rodriguez I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rodriguez I. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
59', Rojas J. 🟨,
60', Fulgencio R. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
64', Jacob T. ↓, Cortez R. ↑,
69', Palavecino A. 🟨,
70', Estupinan O. ↓, Zaldivar A. ↑,
71', Rossano F. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Badaloni T. ⚽, De Buen D. (A),
80', Garcia D. 🟨,
83', Perez P. ↓, Calderon C. ↑,
84', Rosero K. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
87', Pizarro R. ↓, Villalpando D. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 1.

Necaxa has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Juárez's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Necaxa has had a series of away games.

Necaxa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Necaxa: Cambindo D. (Red Card) Lara E. (Elbow Injury) Monreal R. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Necaxa: Calderon C. (Injury) Oliveros A. (Shin Injury)

There are questionable in Juárez: Gonzalez Mendoza J. A. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:12. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:1. (average 1.1:0.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
31.08.25	Tijuana - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Monterrey - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
15.08.25	Necaxa - Club León	0:1 ✺
10.08.25	UNAM - Necaxa	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.08.25	Orlando City - Necaxa	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLTL
- FC Juárez
Mexican Liga MX
29.08.25	Juárez - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
22.08.25	Juárez - Santos Laguna	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Juárez	1:2 ✺
11.08.25	Juárez - Toluca	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
07.08.25	New York Red Bulls - Juárez	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
15.04.25	Juárez - Necaxa	2:2
24.08.24	Necaxa - Juárez	3:0
03.02.24	Juárez - Necaxa	2:2
16.09.23	Necaxa - Juárez	1:1
12.03.23	Juárez - Necaxa	1:1
22.07.22	Necaxa - Juárez	1:0
07.01.22	Juárez - Necaxa	2:1

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