Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	19:00	FOX One


	Necaxa		Juárez

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.8	5	Watch
	1.73	3.75	4.33
	1.7	3.85	4.4	Watch
	1.75	4.09	4.73
	1.71	4	4.58	Watch
	1.69	4	4.6
	1.71	3.78	4.35	Watch
	1.69	3.85	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.9)	3.89 ↑ (3.7)	4.57 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Necaxa
55.2%

Draw
24.2%

Juárez
20.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

48.4%

24.9%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

24.6%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Necaxa's performance.

Juárez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Juárez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Necaxa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Juárez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Necaxa - Juárez Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Necaxa will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
181. Orantes J. (G) 210. Palacios J. 5. Naves 3. Oliveros A. (C) 88. Vargas C. 8. Faravelli L. 33. Martinez R. 10. Ruiz J. 21. Espindola M. 13. Gonzalez O. 9. Carranza J.	1. Jurado S. (C) 33. Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 3. Murillo J. 2. Sepulveda G. 26. Pina D. 183. Rodriguez L. 13. Rodrigo Dourado 9. Madson 8. Guilherme Castilho 11. Rodriguez J. 19. Estupinan O.
Substitutes
1. Andrade C. (G) 208. Becerra L. 6. Leyva D. 2. Martinez E. 20. Mendez F. 16. Pedraza P. 27. Pedroza M. 99. Rodriguez E. 188. Tello I. 14. Zaleta M.	201. Carmona J. 17. Dupuy L. 5. Garcia D. 14. Lopez E. 4. Mayorga A. 250. Molina B. 23. Ortega H. 21. Ricardinho 27. Ruiz G. (G) 16. Sigala J.
Coaches
Reynoso J.	Lema G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Gonzalez O. ⚽,
45+3', Ruiz J. ↓, Leyva D. ↑,
45+7', Carranza J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Espindola M. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
46', Vargas C. ↓, Zaleta M. ↑,
46', Murillo J. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
64', Guilherme Castilho ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
66', Faravelli L. ↓, Mendez F. ↑,
71', Carranza J. ↓, Pedroza M. ↑,
76', Pedroza M. 🟨,
78', Rodriguez J. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
81', Zaleta M. 🟨,
81', Madson 🟨,
82', 1 - 1, Dupuy L. ⚽, Pina D. (A),
86', Estupinan O. 🟨,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 17th and 18th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 2.

Necaxa has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Juárez has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Necaxa carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Necaxa: Pena A. (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Juárez: Ayon E. (Injury) Romero B. (Knee Injury) Romero L. (Knee Injury) Torres Ramirez I. J. M. (Injury).

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Necaxa has recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:14 (averaging 1.3:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Necaxa against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 10:2 goals (averaging 1.1:0.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	16:27	-11	10
18	Juarez	14	1	2	11	9:33	-24	5

Outrights of Mexican Liga MX for now

Necaxa: 0.06% Juarez: 0.05%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
20.10.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	1:0 ✺
16.10.26	Necaxa - Atlas	0:2 ✺
11.10.26	Pachuca - Necaxa	3:3 ✺
27.09.26	Necaxa - Club América	2:4 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético San Luis - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTLL
- FC Juárez
Mexican Liga MX
20.10.26	Juárez - Atlante	0:1 ✺
17.10.26	Cruz Azul - Juárez	5:0 ✺
10.10.26	Juárez - Tijuana	1:1 ✺
27.09.26	Club León - Juárez	2:1 ✺
18.09.26	Juárez - Tigres UANL	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
14.02.26	Juárez - Necaxa	1:2
12.09.25	Necaxa - Juárez	1:1
15.04.25	Juárez - Necaxa	2:2
24.08.24	Necaxa - Juárez	3:0
03.02.24	Juárez - Necaxa	2:2
16.09.23	Necaxa - Juárez	1:1
12.03.23	Juárez - Necaxa	1:1

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