Match Info

USA: USL Championship

Date: 3 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Albuquerque, NM)

Referee: Stevis B. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


North-central-america	ESPNPlay Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
World	Disney+


	New Mexico United		Louisville City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.6	3.5	2.2
	2.75	3.6	2.3
	2.73	3.65	2.29
	2.76	3.67	2.32	Watch
	2.69	3.56	2.31	Watch
	2.75	3.6	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 (2.71)	3.6 ↑ (3.46)	2.29 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New Mexico United
34%

Draw
25.7%

Louisville City
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

26.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

27.2%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for New Mexico United have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

New Mexico United - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tambakis A. (C) 12. Maples T. 4. Herbert A. 3. Gloster C. 26. Mohamed A. 91. Houssou N. 10. Micaletto M. 27. Flanagan A. 17. Hurst G. 19. Bailey Z. 25. Bruce D.	18. Las D. (G) 4. Totsch S. 5. Ordonez A. 32. Adams K. (C) 2. McFadden A. 23. Wynder E. 17. Davila T. 13. Dia A. 25. Wilson J. 7. Serrano R. 14. Harris W.
Substitutes
11. Akale M. 15. Astorga A. 5. Harris D. 8. Hernandez D. 7. Rivas S. 22. Ryden K. 13. Shakes K. (G)	6. Charpie W. 27. Davila E. 20. Gleadle S. 22. Mares D. 11. McCabe N. 3. Morris J. 30. Troutman R. (G)
Coaches
Quill E.	Cruz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', Harris W. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Wilson J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Micaletto M. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
62', Flanagan A. ↓, Harris D. ↑,
62', Bruce D. ↓, Rivas S. ↑,
63', Hurst G. 🟨,
74', Bailey Z. ↓, Akale M. ↑,
74', McFadden A. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
75', Adams K. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
75', Harris W. ↓, Charpie W. ↑,
80', Wilson J. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
83', Herbert A. ↓, Ryden K. ↑,
83', Wynder E. ↓, Mares D. ↑,
90+4', Houssou N. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Louisville City could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches New Mexico won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.

Including matches at home between the teams New Mexico won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New Mexico United
USL Championship
31.07.24	New Mexico United - Las Vegas Lights	1:2 ✺
27.07.24	El Paso Locomotive - New Mexico United	1:2 ✺
20.07.24	New Mexico United - Birmingham Legion	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
10.07.24	Los Angeles - New Mexico United	3:1 ✺
USL Championship
03.07.24	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWTLW
- Louisville City FC
Club Friendly
30.07.24	Louisville City - Eintracht Frankfurt	0:4 ✺
USL Championship
27.07.24	Louisville City - Monterey Bay	4:1 ✺
19.07.24	Louisville City - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:1 ✺
06.07.24	Oakland Roots - Louisville City	1:0 ✺
29.06.24	Birmingham Legion - Louisville City	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
30.09.23	New Mexico United - Louisville City	2:0
03.10.21	Louisville City - New Mexico United	3:1

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