Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 1 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Pawson C. (Eng)


	Newcastle United		AFC Wimbledon

	1	X	2
	1.11	9	23	Watch
	1.11	10	23
	1.11	10	26	Watch
	1.11	10.31	23.45
	1.09	9.99	19.59	Watch
	1.15	7.5	17
	1.11	10.7	25	Watch
	1.11	10	26
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↓ (9.21)	9.69 ↑ (5.22)	22.88 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
86%

Draw
9.9%

AFC Wimbledon
4.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.3%

18.2%

71.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

14%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+75.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-67.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AFC Wimbledon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-72.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+50.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AFC Wimbledon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.8%	6.9%	10.3%

Newcastle United - AFC Wimbledon Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 24 - 85.7%). Wimbledon will win (votes: 3 - 10.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 72.7% – 98.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 21. Livramento V. 17. Krafth E. 5. Schar F. (C) 25. Kelly L. 7. Joelinton 36. Longstaff S. 28. Willock J. 24. Almiron M. 18. Osula W. 11. Barnes H.	1. Goodman O. (G) 26. Harbottle R. 31. Lewis J. (C) 33. Ogundere I. 2. Biler H. 8. Maycock C. 16. Ball J. 21. Hippolyte M. 7. Tilley J. 39. Pigott J. 9. Bugiel O.
Substitutes
33. Burn D. 10. Gordon A. 39. Guimaraes B. 20. Hall L. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 19. Ruddy J. (G) 8. Tonali S. 26. Vlachodimos O. (G)	3. Furlong J. 10. Kelly J. 11. Neufville J. 5. O'Toole J. J. 29. Sasu A. 12. Smith A. 14. Stevens M. 22. Ward L. (G) 27. Williams M.
Coaches
Howe E.	Jackson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', Biler H. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Schar F. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barnes H. ↓, Guimaraes B. ↑,
46', Dubravka M. ↓, Ruddy J. ↑,
52', Hippolyte M. 🟨,
55', Longstaff S. 🟨,
62', Biler H. ↓, Neufville J. ↑,
62', Pigott J. ↓, Stevens M. ↑,
62', Joelinton ↓, Gordon A. ↑,
62', Krafth E. ↓, Hall L. ↑,
89', Hippolyte M. ↓, Smith A. ↑,
89', Maycock C. ↓, Kelly J. ↑,
90', Tilley J. ↓, Furlong J. ↑,
90', Schar F. ↓, Burn D. ↑,

Preview

Playing at St James' Park.

Newcastle is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Wimbledon in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Newcastle have a series of guest games.

In this match Newcastle is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
28.09.24	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:1 ✺
21.09.24	Fulham - Newcastle United	3:1 ✺
15.09.24	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Newcastle United	1:2 ✺
01.09.24	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
28.08.24	Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TLWWW
- AFC Wimbledon
English League Two
21.09.24	Bradford City - AFC Wimbledon	0:0 ✺
14.09.24	AFC Wimbledon - Milton Keynes Dons	3:0 ✺
31.08.24	AFC Wimbledon - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
28.08.24	AFC Wimbledon - Ipswich Town	3:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
24.08.24	Cheltenham Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.1 TWWWW

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